全面二孩政策对中国劳动年龄人口数量和结构的影响:2017—2050

发布时间：2018-04-19 07:24

本文选题：全面二孩政策 + 总和生育率　；参考：《人口与经济》2017年04期

【摘要】：通过2000、2010年两次人口普查数据结合各年统计年鉴相关数据,对全面二孩政策实施后新增出生人口进行估算,预测2017—2050年总和生育率的变化趋势。进而利用队列要素法预测了全面二孩政策对我国2017—2050年劳动年龄人口数量和内部结构的影响。研究结果表明,全面二孩政策的实施虽然无法改变未来劳动年龄人口总量下降的大趋势,但是能够减轻劳动年龄人口数量下降的程度:到2050年全面二孩政策实施后低方案、中方案、高方案分别比现有政策不变时多出2993万、5374万和7585万劳动年龄人口;与此同时,该政策的实施能够提高青年劳动年龄人口占比,降低高龄劳动年龄人口占比,对于优化劳动年龄人口结构有一定效果。
[Abstract]:Through the data of two censuses in 2000 and 2010 combined with the relevant data of each year's statistical yearbook, this paper estimates the new birth population after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, and forecasts the trend of the total fertility rate in 2017-2050.Furthermore, the cohort factor method is used to predict the effect of the comprehensive two-child policy on the number and internal structure of the working-age population in China in 2017-2050.The results show that, while the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy will not change the general trend of the future decline in the total working-age population, it can alleviate the extent of the decline in the working-age population: by 2050, the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy will have low programmes after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy,The implementation of this policy will, at the same time, increase the proportion of young people of working age and reduce the proportion of old people of working age.To optimize the structure of the working age population has a certain effect.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;南京大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71473128) 教育部人文社会科学基金项目(14YJC790038) 中国博士后特别资助项目(2016T90435)
【分类号】：C924.21

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