部分地区人口省际迁移对城镇基本养老保险基金平衡的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 17:08

本文选题：人口省际迁移 + 基本统筹养老保险　；参考：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国各地区间差异化的经济发展为人口的省际迁移提供了强烈的经济动因,随着全国范围内的老龄化现象加剧,依赖人口结构的现收现付制基本统筹养老保险基金也随之显现出地区差异。本文以人口省际迁移为切入点,通过预测国内典型人口迁移省市的迁移人口,计算并比较人口迁入省市和人口迁出省市在养老保险负担系数、养老保险统筹基金收支、基金平衡度方面的差异。论文首先梳理并分析了目前国内外关于人口迁移、人口预测、养老保险基金缺口、劳动力市场与养老保险关系方面的理论和实证研究;其次,着重总结了我国人口迁移的空间现状和迁移人口特征;在此基础上,第三章建立了省际自然人口预测模型和人口迁移模型,分别得到了北京、上海、广东、浙江、安徽、河南、湖南和江西8个省市的分性别分年龄人口迁移率和2010-2060年的迁移人口数量;第四章建立了基本统筹养老保险基金收支模型,计算并比较了人口迁移、女性退休年龄对8个省市养老保险负担系数、基金缺口、基金收支平衡度的影响,并对上述数据模拟结果进行了总结,发现长期内各省份普遍面临养老金收不抵支的支付压力,但人口迁移能在一定程度上提高城镇基本养老保险统筹基金的平衡度;人口迁移的稳定性和永久性、老年人口迁移比重上升能够减轻人口流出省份的基金支出压力,但会增加人口迁入省市的基金支付压力;人口迁出省份更能从延迟女性退休年龄中获益。第五章就如何提高养老保险基金收支能力从人口迁移、养老保险跨地区转移接续、弹性延长女性退休年龄和推进养老保险全国统筹方面给出了相应措施并进行了分析,论文特别强调:现收现付制养老金强烈依赖人口结构和地区经济水平,劳动力的自由流动才能从根本上实现地区间经济的平衡发展,我们需重新审视并合理对待人口省际迁移现象。
[Abstract]:The economic development of the different regions in China provides a strong economic cause for the inter provincial Migration of the population. With the increasing aging phenomenon in the whole country, the basic co-ordination endowment insurance fund which depends on the population structure is also showing regional differences. The migration of provinces and cities with typical population migration, calculation and comparison of the difference in the burden coefficient of endowment insurance, the balance of balance of endowment insurance and the balance of fund, and the analysis of the population migration, population forecast, endowment insurance fund gap and labor market at home and abroad. The theoretical and empirical research on the relationship between the field and the pension insurance. Secondly, it summarizes the spatial status and the migration population characteristics of the population migration in China. On this basis, the third chapter establishes the inter provincial natural population forecasting model and the population migration model, and obtains 8 provinces in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Hunan and Jiangxi respectively. The migration rate of gender divided by age and the number of migrating population in 2010-2060 years; the fourth chapter established the basic balance of pension fund income and expenditure model, calculated and compared the influence of the population migration, the retirement age of women on the endowment insurance burden of 8 provinces and cities, the fund gap, the balance of fund balance, and the results of the above data simulation. It is found that in a long period of time, each province is generally faced with the payment pressure of the pension fund, but the migration of the population can improve the balance of the urban basic endowment insurance fund to a certain extent; the stability and permanence of the migration of the population, the increase in the proportion of the migration of the aged population can reduce the pressure of the fund expenditure in the provinces of the outflow of the population. But it will increase the pressure on the payment of the fund to the provinces and cities, and the migrating provinces can benefit from the delay of women's retirement age. The fifth chapter gives a view of how to improve the endowment insurance fund's income and expenditure from the migration of the population, the transfer of the pension insurance across the region, the elastic extension of the retirement age for women and the promotion of the overall balance of the pension insurance. According to the measures and analysis, the paper especially emphasizes that the payment of payment system is strongly dependent on the population structure and regional economic level. The free flow of labor force can fundamentally realize the balanced development of the inter regional economy, and we need to reexamine and rationally treat the phenomenon of the interprovincial migration.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C922;F842.67

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