北京市人口时空变化与情景预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 04:11

本文选题：城市人口 + 优化布局　；参考：《地理学报》2014年10期

【摘要】：利用第五次和第六次人口普查数据,分析北京全域乡镇街道尺度人口空间变化格局特征,并借助CA-MAS模型对未来城市人口格局进行情景模拟,以期增进对北京人口时空动态的认识,为北京城市管理决策和宏观调控提供科学参考。研究表明:1 2000-2010年,北京常住人口年均增长率高达3.5%,年均增加近60万人,是同期我国人口增长最快的特大城市之一;2北京全域人口变化在空间上具有明显的圈层式特征,集中表现为中心区人口增长几乎停滞、近郊区人口快速增长、远郊城市发展新区人口高速增长、远郊生态涵养区往往仅区县政府驻地及重点乡镇人口明显增长;3基于CA-MAS的情景模拟分析表明,在自发布局情景下,就业机会进一步向城市中心集聚,人口居住不断郊区化,这将增大城市的通勤压力,加剧城市交通拥堵状况,而通过调整就业参数,强化工作地居住功能的引导政策,则能在一定程度上解决城市内部空间尺度产城失衡的问题,可促进小城镇群的形成,有利于降低城市通勤压力,发挥城市的辐射和扩散作用。本文认为,为实现北京人口空间布局优化,应着力促进就业与居住相协调,推动区域间公共资源均等化,规划多中心组团发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the fifth and sixth population censuses, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the spatial change pattern of the street population in the whole area of Beijing, and carries on the scenario simulation of the future urban population pattern with the help of the CA-MAS model. The aim is to improve the understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of Beijing's population and to provide a scientific reference for Beijing's urban management decision making and macro-control. The research shows that from 2000 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of resident population in Beijing is as high as 3.5%, and the average annual increase is nearly 600000 people. It is one of the fastest growing megacities in China during the same period. The concentrated manifestations are the near stagnation of population growth in the central district, the rapid growth of the population in the peri-suburban areas, and the rapid growth of the population in the new urban development areas in the outer suburbs. In the ecological conservation areas in the far suburbs, the population growth of the county government and the key towns is obvious only. The simulation analysis based on CA-MAS shows that, under the spontaneous layout scenario, the employment opportunities are further concentrated in the urban center, and the population is suburbanization. This will increase the urban commuting pressure, aggravate the urban traffic congestion, and by adjusting the employment parameters and strengthening the guiding policy of the living function of the working place, it can to some extent solve the problem of the imbalance between the urban production and the urban production on a spatial scale within the city. It can promote the formation of small town group, reduce the pressure of commuting and give play to the role of radiation and diffusion of the city. This paper holds that in order to optimize the spatial distribution of population in Beijing, it is necessary to promote the coordination of employment and residence, to promote the equalization of public resources among regions, and to plan the development of multi-center groups.
【作者单位】：北京市社会科学院;北京师范大学资源学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271187;41130748)~~
【分类号】：C924.24

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