人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长

发布时间：2018-04-22 23:20

本文选题：计划生育政策调整 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《经济学(季刊)》2017年01期

【摘要】：本文通过构建一个考虑双向代际转移的三期世代交替模型讨论了人口老龄化如何影响中国家庭的储蓄、人力资本投资决策与经济增长,并对当前的生育政策调整的经济影响进行了模拟与政策评价。本文的研究发现:在当今中国的现实参数下,人口老龄化已经对家庭储蓄、人力资本投资与经济增长产生负面影响;提高向老年一代的代际转移比率不但无法应对人口老龄化,反而会使家庭储蓄率、教育投资率以及经济增长率大幅下降;放松计划生育政策后,如果生育率不出现大幅度反弹,将有利于经济增长。数值模拟还显示,当前的生育政策调整虽然能够在一定程度上减缓但无法根本扭转人口老龄化对经济增长的不利冲击,要应对人口老龄化的挑战,行之有效的办法是提高人力资本的积累速度和人力资本在生产中的效率。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses how the aging of the population affects the savings, human capital investment and economic growth of Chinese households through the construction of a three-generation alternating model considering two-way intergenerational transfer. The economic impact of current fertility policy adjustment is simulated and evaluated. In this paper, we find that, under the realistic parameters of China today, the aging of population has had a negative impact on household savings, investment in human capital and economic growth, and that increasing the intergenerational transfer ratio to the older generation is not only unable to cope with the aging of the population. Instead, the rate of household savings, the rate of investment in education and the rate of economic growth will fall sharply; if the fertility rate does not rebound sharply after easing the family planning policy, it will benefit economic growth. Numerical simulations also show that, while the current fertility policy adjustment can slow down to some extent, it cannot fundamentally reverse the adverse impact of population ageing on economic growth and address the challenges posed by population ageing. The effective way is to improve the speed of human capital accumulation and the efficiency of human capital in production.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学财经研究所上海市金融信息技术研究重点实验室;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA013),国家社科基金重点项目(13AJL004) 2013年教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-13-0891) 上海市浦江人才计划(16PJC034) 上海财经大学讲习副教授资助计划等研究项目的资助
【分类号】：C924.2;F124

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