武汉市人口结构与住宅价格关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 05:06

本文选题：住宅 + 人口结构　；参考：《华中农业大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 房地产业是我国国民经济的支柱产业,在我国国民经济中扮演着重要角色。住宅是房地产的重要组成部分,住宅市场的健康发展不仅关系到国家、地区的经济发展,更加关系到社会的稳定与和谐。我国是一个人口众多的国家,在上世纪五六十年代,我国经历了一个高出生率的时代,这批人口成年后,住宅需求急剧增大。加之近些年我国民经济空前发展,城市人口快速增长,收入水平不断提高、消费观念得到巨大的改善,人们对于住宅的数量和质量上的需求大量释放。但我国的现实国情是人均土地面积少,住宅用地供给有限。住宅供需的不平衡,造成房价上涨。近几年,城市房价上涨过快,“买房难”问题早已不是个案,住宅问题已成为包括城市中低收入人群在内的大部分人的难题。同时,根据人口学家、经济学家预测,我国“人口红利”时代即将消退,取而代之的将是老龄化社会。对于可以预见的住宅需求的剧减,将会给我国房地产业带来巨大冲击。作为我国中西部最大的城市,武汉面临着同样的问题。如何实现住宅市场对人口结构变化的“软着陆”,人口结构与住宅价格有什么内在联系,本文将就这一问题进行探讨。本文以武汉市为例,将商品住宅价格与人口结构作为研究对象,选取武汉市人口自然结构(性别比、劳动力资源比重、抚养比)、人口社会经济结构(家庭规模、就业比重、人均可支配收入)和地域结构(非农业人口比重)三个方面七个指标,文章先对人口结构各子结构与住宅价格关系进行定性分析,然后建立计量经济学模型。得出：(1)人口结构与住宅价格有很强的相关性。其中,劳动力资源结构、抚养比、人均可支配收入与住宅价格相互引导；家庭规模、非农业人口比重单方面引导住宅价格变化；住宅价格引导就业比重的变化；性别比与住宅价格不存在相关性。(2)武汉市住宅价格主要受劳动力资源结构、家庭规模和城乡结构的影响。(3)家庭规模、人均可支配收入、非农业人口比重对住宅价格存在长期的影响,劳动力资源结构、抚养比在短期内影响较大。文章最后对武汉市住宅市场健康发展提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy and plays an important role in our national economy. Housing is an important part of real estate. The healthy development of housing market is not only related to the economic development of countries and regions, but also to the stability and harmony of society. China is a country with a large population. In the 1950s and 1960s, our country experienced a high birth rate. In addition, the unprecedented development of our national economy in recent years, the rapid growth of urban population, rising income level, consumption concept has been greatly improved, people's demand for the quantity and quality of housing has been released. However, the actual situation of our country is that the per capita land area is small and the supply of residential land is limited. Housing supply and demand imbalance, resulting in rising house prices. In recent years, housing prices in cities have risen too fast, the problem of "difficult to buy a house" is no longer a case, housing problems have become a problem for most people, including low and middle income people in the city. At the same time, according to demographers and economists, China's "demographic dividend" era will fade, replaced by an aging society. For the foreseeable housing demand, will bring a huge impact on the real estate industry in China. As the largest city in central and western China, Wuhan is facing the same problem. How to realize the "soft landing" of housing market to the change of population structure, and what is the internal relation between population structure and housing price, this paper will discuss this problem. Taking Wuhan as an example, this paper takes commodity housing price and population structure as the research object, and selects the natural structure of population (sex ratio, labor resource proportion, dependency ratio, social and economic structure of population (family size, employment proportion) in Wuhan City. There are seven indexes in three aspects: per capita disposable income) and regional structure (proportion of non-agricultural population). Firstly, the relationship between the substructure of population structure and housing price is qualitatively analyzed, and then an econometric model is established. There is a strong correlation between population structure and housing price. Among them, the structure of labor resources, dependency ratio, per capita disposable income and housing price guide each other; the family size, the proportion of non-agricultural population leads to the change of housing price unilaterally; the housing price leads to the change of employment proportion; There is no correlation between sex ratio and housing price. (2) the housing price in Wuhan is mainly affected by the structure of labor resources, family size and urban and rural structure. The proportion of non-agricultural population has a long-term effect on housing prices, and the labor resource structure and dependency ratio have a great influence in the short term. Finally, the article puts forward some suggestions for the healthy development of Wuhan housing market.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：F293.3;C924.2;F224

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