人口政策调整的一般均衡分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 05:24

本文选题：人口政策 + 经济增长　；参考：《人口与发展》2013年03期

【摘要】：随着我国人口老龄化日益严重,学界和公众关于调整"一胎"生育管制政策的呼声日高。那么不同的人口政策到底会对中国经济产生多大的影响?按户主年龄和家庭规模大小对家庭类型细分为12组,并引入动态CGE模型中,定量分析了不同人口政策调整对中国经济增长和结构的影响。完善单独、推行二孩晚育政策下的基准情景的人均GDP水平最高;执行严厉计划生育政策的LOW情景的GDP增长率和人均GDP水平最低;完全放宽人口政策的HIGH情景,虽然经济增长速度较快,但是承受着巨大的资源环境压力和人均GDP水平不如基准情景。从人均GDP和环境压力角度来看,我国应该完善"单独"政策,适当推行"二孩晚育"的人口政策,既有利于经济的发展,又能适当减轻社会环境的承载压力。
[Abstract]:With the aging of population in our country, the demands of academic circles and the public on adjusting the birth control policy of "one-child" are increasing day by day. So how much impact will different population policies have on China's economy? According to the age of the head of household and the size of the household, it is divided into 12 groups, and the dynamic CGE model is introduced to quantitatively analyze the effect of different population policy adjustment on the economic growth and structure of China. Perfect alone, the per capita GDP level of the benchmark scenario under the two-child policy is the highest; the GDP growth rate and the per capita GDP level of the LOW scenario implementing the strict family planning policy are the lowest; and the HIGH scenario of completely relaxing the population policy, Although the economic growth rate is relatively fast, but under the huge resource environment pressure and the per capita GDP level is inferior to the benchmark scenario. From the point of view of per capita GDP and environmental pressure, our country should perfect the policy of "separate" and properly carry out the population policy of "two children and late childbearing", which is not only beneficial to the development of economy, but also to lighten the bearing pressure of social environment.
【作者单位】：北京科学学研究中心;国务院发展研究中心;
【分类号】：C924.21

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