人口老龄化与产业结构升级——基于2002—2015年省级面板数据的分析

发布时间：2018-05-10 16:52

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 产业结构升级　；参考：《广西社会科学》2017年10期

【摘要】：从供给和需求两个层面梳理了人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响机制,并利用我国2002—2015年的省级面板数据构建计量模型进行实证研究。研究表明:整体上来看,人口老龄化不仅阻碍了我国三次产业结构的优化升级,而且限制了我国服务业内部结构的转型升级;分区域来看,人口老龄化对东部地区产业结构优化升级产生了显著的负效应,却对中西部地区的非资源型产业培育、传统产业转型升级产生了显著的正效应。因此,必须充分考虑人口老龄化对我国不同区域产业结构升级的影响效应,辅以相应的政策设计,以更好地推进我国产业结构的优化升级。
[Abstract]:This paper combs the influence mechanism of population aging on industrial structure upgrading from two aspects of supply and demand, and builds econometric model by using provincial panel data from 2002 to 2015 in China. The study shows that the aging population not only hinders the optimization and upgrading of China's three industrial structures, but also restricts the transformation and upgrading of the internal structure of our service industry. Population aging has a significant negative effect on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the eastern region, but it has a significant positive effect on the cultivation of non-resource-based industries and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in the central and western regions. Therefore, the effects of aging population on the upgrading of industrial structure in different regions of China must be fully considered, and the corresponding policy design should be taken into account in order to better promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China.
【作者单位】：云南大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“产业转移促进西部地区产业升级的机理分析”(10CJL044) 云南省哲学社科基金课题项目“云南省创业投资引导基金运作机制构建研究”(YB2016012) 云南省院省校合作研究项目“供给侧结构性改革视角下云南特色优势产业创新发展研究”(SYSX201601) 云南大学“青年英才培育计划”资助项目(XT412003);云南大学教育教学改革重点课题“PBL视角下宏观经济学课程教学创新研究”(2016Z05)
【分类号】：C924.24;F121.3

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