金砖国家人口转变与未来经济社会发展

发布时间：2018-05-13 20:46

本文选题：金砖国家 + 人口转变　；参考：《现代管理科学》2013年02期

【摘要】：与多数新兴市场国家一样,中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西四个金砖国家正经历着迅速的人口转变。人口转变中期的人口机会窗口和末期的人口老龄化会对各国经济与社会发展产生深刻影响。金砖国家近年来取得的经济增长引人注目,在看到有效利用人口机会窗口可能取得的光明发展前景的同时,也要关注由人口转变末期人口老龄化引发的金砖国家未来经济社会发展面临的种种风险。认为在人口转变和经济发展推动下新兴市场国家必然引领更繁荣的新时代的观点是不全面的。四国转变速度不同,立体式展现了人口转变的不同阶段,文章分析了金砖国家的人口转变过程,总结了人口机会窗口期中取得较快经济增长的国家的经验,展望了人口转变末期各国的老龄化发展趋势,及各国不同制度和经济环境下阻碍其长期发展的要素。
[Abstract]:Like most emerging markets, China, India, Russia and Brazil are undergoing rapid demographic shifts. The window of population opportunity in the middle stage of population transition and the final stage of population aging will have a profound impact on the economic and social development of each country. The BRICS countries have seen remarkable economic growth in recent years, while seeing the promising prospects for effective use of the demographic window of opportunity. Attention should also be paid to the risks to the future economic and social development of the BRICS, triggered by an ageing population at the end of the demographic transition. The idea that emerging market countries are bound to usher in a new era of greater prosperity, driven by demographic shifts and economic development, is incomplete. The paper analyzes the population transition process of the BRICS countries and summarizes the experiences of the countries that have achieved faster economic growth in the window of population opportunity. The development trend of aging in different countries at the end of population transition and the factors hindering their long-term development under different systems and economic environment are forecasted.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F113;C924.1

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