日照市规模经济人口结构系统动力学模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 19:45

本文选题：港口城市 + 竞争力　；参考：《北京化工大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：“十二五"时期海洋经济被提升为国家战略,《全国海洋经济规划》规划到2020年,海洋产业增加值占国内生产总值的20%以上。沿海港口城市在海洋经济发展中具有重大意义,但是目前我国除上海、天津、宁波、青岛等少数发展较好的沿海港口城市以外,大多数沿海港口城市处于规模经济起飞阶段,经济起飞需要大量的资金和人才推动。周边港口城市竞争力强于规模经济起飞的港口城市,产生虹吸效应导致其资金不足和就业人口本地、外地就业结构不合理、人才不足是阻碍经济起飞的根本原因。目前资本获得的方式主要是社会融资和独立争取国家投资,但是对于存在虹吸的港口城市效果不佳。本文拟以日照市为例,提出国家海洋经济战略下规模经济起飞的沿海港口城市资本获得路径,构建系统动力学模型定量分析资本如何使用更能促进经济社会发展,通过模型分析就业人口结构,模拟投资规模对经济社会发展的影响,并提出相应建议。首先,本文基于因子分析建立了港口城市规模竞争力评价模型,采用相对量为指标对港口城市规模竞争力进行评价；第二提出了国家海洋经济战略下港口集群争取国家支持并进一步发挥杠杆撬动社会资本,优化布局吸引人才的新的资本获得途径。第三,基于系统动力学理论,构建了日照市规模经济人口结构系统动力学模型,研究港口、经济、人口的互动关系,预测日照市未来的发展,分析人口区域就业结构,通过政策模拟不同投资规模对经济社会发展的影响,并提出相应政策建议。本文为港口城市解决规模经济起飞的问题提供了基本思路和方法,对国家海洋经济战略背景下其抓住机遇,实现经济起飞有重要意义。
[Abstract]:During the 12th Five-Year Plan, the marine economy was promoted as a national strategy. By 2020, the added value of the marine industry will account for more than 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Coastal port cities are of great significance in the development of marine economy. However, with the exception of Shanghai, Tianjin, Ningbo and Qingdao, most of the coastal port cities are in the stage of taking off with economies of scale. Economic takeoff needs a large amount of funds and talents to promote. The competitiveness of peripheral port cities is stronger than that of port cities with economies of scale. The siphon effect leads to the shortage of capital and the local employment population, the unreasonable employment structure in other places, and the shortage of talents is the fundamental reason that hinders the economic take-off. At present, the main ways to obtain capital are social financing and independent national investment, but the effect of siphon on port cities is not good. Taking Rizhao City as an example, this paper puts forward the way to obtain the capital of coastal port cities that take off with economies of scale under the national marine economic strategy, and sets up a system dynamics model to quantitatively analyze how capital is used to promote economic and social development. This paper analyzes the structure of employed population, simulates the influence of investment scale on economic and social development, and puts forward some corresponding suggestions. Firstly, based on factor analysis, this paper establishes the evaluation model of port city scale competitiveness, and uses relative quantity as the index to evaluate port city scale competitiveness. Secondly, the paper puts forward a new way of obtaining capital under the strategy of national marine economy, which can win the support of the state and further leverage the social capital and optimize the layout to attract talents. Thirdly, based on the theory of system dynamics, this paper constructs the system dynamics model of Rizhao's large-scale economic population structure, studies the interaction among port, economy and population, forecasts the future development of Rizhao, and analyzes the regional employment structure of Rizhao. The influence of different investment scale on economic and social development is simulated by policy, and corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. This paper provides the basic ideas and methods for the port city to solve the problem of the takeoff of scale economy. It is of great significance for the port city to seize the opportunity and realize the economic take-off under the background of the national marine economic strategy.
【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F127;C924.2;F224

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