湖南人口结构均衡度与经济发展的耦合协调度研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 17:00

本文选题：人口结构 + 经济发展　；参考：《湖南大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口结构问题是21世纪中国人口的核心问题。在计划生育政策的作用下，我国的人口转变表现为：人口总量大，发展水平低，转变速度快，时间短。这种转变会影响人口结构的均衡协调发展。在提倡可持续发展观的背景下，人口结构均衡发展的程度影响区域经济的发展。而区域经济的发展也同样影响着区域人口结构。本文首先具体分析了湖南省人口结构发展现状，发现湖南人口结构整体现状发展水平不高，区域人口结构发展差异明显。其次采用模糊多因素综合评价方法构建了人口结构均衡发展的模糊综合评价模型，对湖南省1995－2010年人口结构时间序列数据及2010年湖南各市州人口结构截面数据进行了人口结构均衡发展程度的模糊综合评判，实证结果表明湖南省整体人口结构均衡发展程度水平较低，处于初级均衡阶段。2010年湖南区域人口结构均衡发展程度存在差异，长沙及株洲处于人口结构中级均衡的发展阶段，其他12个市州处于人口结构初级均衡的发展阶段。再次借鉴物理学中耦合度函数构建了人口结构与经济发展的耦合协调度模型，从省级层面及地级市层面对湖南人口结构与经济发展的耦合协调程度进行了测度，测度结果表明湖南省人口结构与经济发展耦合协调度从1995年到2010年，呈现出阶段性特征明显、总体不断增长的趋势，人口结构与经济发展耦合协调程度经历了由初级协调到良好协调的发展过程。从地级市层面看，湖南区域人口结构与经济耦合协调度在时空发展上具有一定的阶段性和区域性。湖南14地级市人口结构与经济发展的耦合协调度区域差异明显，，协调类型两极分化情况严重。最后根据前文实证分析的结果，提出促进人口结构自身均衡发展、人口结构与经济协调发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Population structure is the core of Chinese population in the 21 st century. Under the action of family planning policy, the population transformation of our country is as follows: the total population is large, the level of development is low, the speed of transition is fast and the time is short. This change will affect the balanced and coordinated development of the population structure. Under the background of advocating sustainable development view, the degree of balanced development of population structure affects the development of regional economy. The development of regional economy also affects the regional population structure. Firstly, this paper analyzes the present situation of population structure development in Hunan province, and finds out that the development level of Hunan population structure is not high, and the difference of regional population structure development is obvious. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the balanced development of population structure is constructed by using the fuzzy multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. In this paper, the population structure time series data of Hunan Province from 1995 to 2010 and the population structure cross-section data from the cities and states of Hunan Province in 2010 are evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the degree of balanced development of population structure. The empirical results show that the level of population structure equilibrium in Hunan Province is low, and it is in the primary equilibrium stage. In 2010, there are differences in the level of population structure equilibrium in Hunan Province, while Changsha and Zhuzhou are in the middle stage of population structure equilibrium development. The other 12 municipal states are in the primary equilibrium stage of population structure development. The coupling degree model of population structure and economic development is constructed by using the coupling degree function of physics for reference, and the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and economic development in Hunan is measured from provincial level and prefectural level. The results show that the degree of coordination between population structure and economic development in Hunan Province from 1995 to 2010 shows a phase characteristic, and the overall trend is increasing. The coupling and coordination of population structure and economic development has experienced the development process from primary coordination to good coordination. From the level of prefecture-level city, the coordination degree of regional population structure and economy in Hunan has certain stages and regions in space-time development. There are obvious regional differences in the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and economic development in 14 prefectural cities of Hunan Province, and the polarization of coordination types is serious. Finally, according to the results of the previous empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the balanced development of the population structure and the harmonious development of the population structure and the economy.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2;F127;F224

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