人口数量变化对地区收入收敛影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 22:17

本文选题：人口相对变化 + 人口流动　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放至今,我国经济一直以迅猛趋势发展。2008年国内生产总值GDP达300670亿元,对全球新增GDP份额的贡献达近18%,我国成为全球第三大经济体。2010年中国名义GDP比日本高4044亿美元,GDP平均汇率折算达58791亿美元,成为第二大经济体。但是,在我国经济发展的高速发展的过程中,各地区之间的人均收入水平和实力的差距不断扩大。据统计,我国收入的基尼系数从1978年0.317到2010年的0.458,特别是东部沿海地区收入水平较其他地区高得多。人均收入(人均GDP)的差异已经逐渐成为学者们非常关注的研究课题。人口因素是经济发展的要素之一,人口的数量变化,是影响收入差距的动因之一。人口数量变化对收入收敛的影响作用主要包括两个方面,即人口数量相对变化以及人口流动对地区收入的收敛的影响作用。人口数量的相对变化可以通过各地区人口数量占全国总人口总量比重的变化来反映。我国各地区人口数量相对变化的绝对因素已经不是人口自然增长率,各地区人口增长率相差无几,而是决定于人口流动。伴随着我国经济的日益高涨,各地区人口占全国人口的数量也不断变化,人口流动规模不断扩大,人口数量的相对变化和人口流动对人均收入的收敛趋势都有不可忽视的影响。人口相对变化及人口流动对收入收敛的影响不仅在国内广受关注,而且在国际上也被争论不已。学者们对人口数量的相对变化和人口流动对地区收入收敛的影响主要存在两种观点,一种观点认为人口数量的相对变化及人口流动对缩小地区差距有着显著的贡献作用,另一种观点认为人口流动并没有促进地区差距的缩小,而是使地区差距进一步扩大。基于这样的背景,本文从各省市人口数量的相对变化和人口流动两个方面分析人口数量变化对地区收入收敛的影响作用。首先,利用Theil指数及变异系数对中国各省人均收入差距进行分析,并通过实证研究,证明了研究期内中国各地区总收入和人均收入都存在收敛的特征；其次,通过人口数量相对变化对收入收敛的实证指出,人口相对变化对收入的收敛有不可忽视贡献作用；第三,分析了人口流动对地区收入收敛的影响,证明人口数量变化确实影响地区收入的收敛进程；最后,结合实证分析与结论,提出有价值的政策建议。论文共分五部分。第一部分,主要对国内外人口与收入差距关系的相关研究进行综述。关于人口相对变化和人口流动对收入收敛影响的争论分别是新古典主义理论和内生增长理论。新古典增长模型认为,投资的边际收益率呈递减趋势,因此保证了经济增长稳定在一个特定值上,即经济的增长过程最终将趋于稳态(Solow,1956),此时人均产出保持不变。由于各经济单位(国家或地区)的具体条件不同,稳态的值也会互不相同。收入趋于稳态的过程,被称为收入的收敛。根据内生增长理论,一国能够实现经济的持续增长,稳定状态不存在。也就是说,收敛是不可能的。论文的第二部分主要研究了人均收入的收敛特征和趋势。在这一部分,首先对收入收敛的内涵做概括说明,其次通过Theil系数和变异系数结合来分析我国人均收入的收敛特点,最后利用一个面板数据模型,实证研究了我国收入的收敛现状和趋势。论文的第三部分主要分析了人口数量的相对变化对人均收入收敛的影响作用。这一部分首先对人口动态(人口相对变化)进行描述性分析,说明了人口动态对收入收敛(或发散)进程的影响,其次通过实证分析研究人口数量的相对变化对人均收入影响的地区性特征,最后通过shift-share(偏离-份额)分析对各省人口份额的变化对人均收入增长的影响,从而分析对人均收入收敛进程的影响。论文的第四部分主要是人口流动对收入收敛影响的实证分析。首先对人口流动的现状和特征进行归纳和总结,然后利用统计分析软件进行数据分析,实证研究分析人口流动对收入收敛影响作用。论文的第五部分主要针对实证结果得出结论并提出政策建议,为如何有效发挥人口作用缩小收入差异提供一些方法和思路。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, our country's economy has been developing a rapid trend of.2008 GDP to 300670 billion yuan, and the contribution to the global new GDP share is nearly 18%. China has become the third largest economy in the world in the name of.2010, the GDP is 404 billion 400 million US dollars higher than that of Japan, and the average exchange rate of GDP reaches 58791 billion US dollars and becomes the second largest economy.
However, in the process of the rapid development of China's economic development, the gap between the per capita income level and strength has been widening. According to statistics, the Gini coefficient of China's income from 0.317 to 2010 in 1978, especially in the eastern coastal areas, is much higher than that of other regions. The difference of per capita income (per capita GDP) has been made by the country. It has become a research subject that scholars have paid very much attention to.
Population factor is one of the factors of economic development. The change of population is one of the factors that affect the income gap. The influence of population quantity change on income convergence mainly includes two aspects, that is, the relative change of population quantity and the influence of population flow on the convergence of regional income. The number of population in each region accounts for the change in the total proportion of the total population of the country. The absolute factor of the relative change of the population in each region is not the natural growth rate of the population. The population growth rate in each region is almost different, but it is determined by the population flow.
With the increasing economy of our country, the population of all regions is also changing, the scale of population flow is expanding, the relative change of population and the trend of population flow have no negligible influence on the convergence trend of per capita income. The influence of population relative change and human mouth flow on income convergence is not only widely used in China. There are two main points of view on the relative change of population quantity and the effect of population flow on regional income convergence. One view holds that the relative change of population and the flow of population have a significant contribution to the narrowing of the regional gap, and the other view is population flow. It did not promote the narrowing of the regional disparity, but widened the regional disparity.
Based on this background, this paper analyzes the influence of population quantity change on regional income convergence from two aspects of the relative change of population number and population flow in various provinces and cities. First, the Theil index and coefficient of variation are used to analyze the per capita income gap in all provinces of China, and through empirical research, it is proved that the Chinese regions in the study period are in the period of the study. Both the total income and the per capita income have the characteristics of convergence. Secondly, through the empirical analysis of the relative change of population on income convergence, it is pointed out that the relative change of population has no negligible contribution to the convergence of income; third, the influence of population flow on regional income convergence is analyzed, and it is proved that the change of population does affect the income income of the region. Convergence process; finally, combined with empirical analysis and conclusions, put forward valuable policy recommendations.
The thesis is divided into five parts. In the first part, it summarizes the related research on the relationship between the population and the income gap both at home and abroad. The debate about the relative changes of population and the influence of population flow on income convergence is the neo classical theory and the endogenous growth theory. The new classical growth model is recognized as the marginal return of investment, Therefore, the economic growth is guaranteed to be stable on a specific value, that is, the economic growth process will eventually tend to steady state (Solow, 1956), and the per capita output remains unchanged. The steady state is not the same because the specific conditions of the economic units (countries or regions) are different. The process of getting into the steady state is called the convergence of income. Growth growth theory, a country can achieve sustained economic growth, stable state does not exist, that is, convergence is impossible.
The second part of this paper mainly studies the convergence characteristics and trends of per capita income. In this part, first, the connotation of income convergence is summarized. Secondly, the convergence characteristics of per capita income in China are analyzed by combining Theil coefficient and coefficient of variation. Finally, the convergence of China's income is empirically studied by using a panel data model. Shape and trend.
The third part of the paper mainly analyzes the influence of the relative change of population on the per capita income convergence. This part first describes the population dynamics (population relative change), and explains the effect of population dynamics on the process of income convergence (or divergence), and it studies the relative changes of population number by empirical analysis. The regional characteristics of per capita income affect the impact of the change of population share on the growth of per capita income through the analysis of Shift-share (deviation share), and the effect of the analysis on the progress of per capita income convergence.
The fourth part of the paper is mainly an empirical analysis of the influence of population flow on income convergence. First, the current situation and characteristics of population flow are summarized and summarized, and then the statistical analysis software is used to analyze the data, and the effect of population flow on income convergence is analyzed.
The fifth part of the paper comes to the conclusion of the empirical results and puts forward the policy suggestions to provide some methods and ideas for how to effectively play the role of population to reduce the income difference.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05;F124.7;F224

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