人口老龄化与基本医疗费用支出的关联效应测度——基于全国省级数据的实证考察

发布时间：2018-05-19 04:17

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 医疗费用支出　；参考：《上海行政学院学报》2017年06期

【摘要】：目前,中国已经进入人口老龄化社会。人口老龄化问题不仅对中国宏观经济有着巨大影响,也给中国医疗费用支出带来了不可忽视的挑战。文章梳理老龄化与医疗服务费用的既有文献,提出人口老龄化对基本医疗费用关联影响的应然性。通过建构关联模型,借助于30个省份的面板数据,研究发现:(1)65岁以上的人口比重和人口抚养比均对人均门诊费用产生显著性的正向影响,但对人均住院费用尚无显著影响;(2)人均GDP、三级医院比重以及时间变量都对人均医疗费用的增加产生了正向效应;(3)每千人卫生技术人员数、城镇人口比重抑制了人均医疗费用的增长,但医疗保险参保率和死亡率尚未对人均医疗费用产生显著性影响。研究表明,人口老龄化水平的增加会显著促进门诊费用的上涨,但其对住院费用并无显著性影响。基于此,提出相应的政策建议,以抑制基本医疗费用的快速增长,从而促进社会质量的有效提升。
[Abstract]:At present, China has entered an aging population society. The problem of population aging not only has a great impact on China's macro economy, but also brings a challenge to China's medical expenditure. This paper reviews the existing literature on aging and medical service costs, and puts forward the necessity of the impact of population aging on basic medical costs. With the help of panel data from 30 provinces, it is found that the proportion of population over 65 years old and the dependency ratio have significant positive effects on the outpatient expenditure per capita. However, there was no significant effect on per capita hospitalization cost (GDP2) per capita. The proportion of tertiary hospitals and time variables had a positive effect on the increase of per capita medical expenditure. The proportion of urban population inhibits the increase of medical cost per capita, but the rate of medical insurance participation and mortality have not yet had a significant impact on the per capita medical cost. The study shows that the increase of population aging level can significantly promote the outpatient expenses, but it has no significant effect on hospital expenses. In order to restrain the rapid growth of basic medical expenses and promote the effective improvement of social quality, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“农村公共服务供给的‘碎片化’及其治理研究”(14BGL150) 江苏省社科规划项目“江苏农村治理的现代化研究——社会政策的视角”(14SZB016) 江苏省高校重点社科项目“社会治理创新的价值研究”(2015ZDIXM012) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“农村社会治理质量测度标准研究——以江苏省为例”(KYLX16_1002) 广西高校人文社会科学研究基地资助项目“广西青年社会组织发展现状与模式研究”的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.24;R195

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