人口年龄结构变动对我国储蓄的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 18:52

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 生命周期理论　；参考：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入二十一世纪以来,中国居民储蓄率增速十分迅猛,而居民消费却一直维持在较低水平。当前,我国居民的消费率尚且不足40%,是欧美等发达国家居民消费率的三分之二。欧美发达国家的经济增长有很大一部分是依靠其居民消费拉动的。随着一国经济的发展,该国居民消费应不断增加,而储蓄则相应地减少。国民经济发展的重要目标之一就是必须保持一定的消费水平,这是惠及民生的重要战略。另外,中国长期以来依靠对外出口拉动经济增长的模式是很难持久的。要保持中国经济的可持续发展,就需要改变经济增长方式,使得拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”——投资、消费、净出口能够均衡全面的发展。根据生命周期假说,人口的年龄结构是影响到居民储蓄水平的重要因素。然而,由于统计数据缺失、模型不够完善等原因,目前国内学者从人口年龄结构的角度来分析储蓄过高问题的文献并不多。因此,本文分析人口年龄结构变动对储蓄的影响具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先在回顾生命周期理论及其扩展的基础上,分析了人口年龄结构变动对储蓄的影响机制,将人口年龄结构(用少儿抚养比和老年抚养比来代表)纳入到了生命周期模型当中,构建了包含人口年龄结构因素的动态生命周期模型。然后,本文选用了少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、居民可支配收入、收入增长率、利率等解释变量,采用1990年至2012年全国29个省市的面板数据,运用动态面板数据模型考察了人口年龄结构对储蓄的影响。研究结果显示,少儿抚养比对储蓄仅具有十分微弱的负向影响,且这种影响并不显著；而老年抚养比对储蓄有十分显著的正向影响。本文认为即使由于中国的人口政策导致少儿抚养比在未来持续下降,也仅能对储蓄产生十分有限的影响。而老年抚养比对储蓄有一定程度的作用,随着老年人死亡率的下降和预期寿命的延长,老年抚养比会逐步上升,从而在一定程度上增加社会储蓄的数量。分地区的模型实证结果表明,我国东部地区的老年抚养比对储蓄的影响最大,西部地区其次,中部地区的影响程度相对较低；而在少儿抚养比对储蓄的影响方面,各个地区的影响程度均不大。在此基础上,文章对人口年龄结构对储蓄影响的区域性差异进行了分析。另外,在实证分析中发现上一期的储蓄对当期储蓄具有显著的正向影响,储蓄具有较大的惰性。最后,本文在实证分析结论的基础上,提出了几条能够促进我国消费增加、储蓄减少的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 21 th century, China's household savings rate has been growing rapidly, while household consumption has remained at a relatively low level. At present, the consumption rate of Chinese residents is less than 40 percent, which is 2/3 percent of that of developed countries such as Europe and the United States. Europe and the United States developed countries have a large part of the economic growth is driven by their residents consumption. With the development of a country's economy, the consumption of the country's residents should be increasing, and the savings should be reduced accordingly. One of the important goals of national economic development is to maintain a certain level of consumption, which is an important strategy to benefit people's livelihood. In addition, China's long-term export-led economic growth model is difficult to sustain. To maintain the sustainable development of China's economy, it is necessary to change the mode of economic growth so that the "troika" of economic growth-investment, consumption, and net exports can develop in a balanced and comprehensive manner. According to the life cycle hypothesis, the age structure of the population is an important factor affecting the level of household savings. However, due to the lack of statistical data and imperfect models, there are few literatures on the problem of over-saving from the perspective of population age structure. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the effect of the change of population age structure on savings. On the basis of reviewing the life cycle theory and its extension, this paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of the change of the age structure of the population on savings. The age structure of population (represented by children's dependency ratio and old age dependency ratio) is incorporated into the life cycle model, and a dynamic life cycle model with population age structure factors is constructed. Then, this paper selects the explanatory variables of children's dependency ratio, old age dependency ratio, resident disposable income, income growth rate, interest rate and so on, and adopts the panel data of 29 provinces and cities from 1990 to 2012. The effect of population age structure on savings is investigated by using dynamic panel data model. The results show that the children's dependency ratio has only a very weak negative effect on savings, and this effect is not significant, while the old age dependency ratio has a very significant positive impact on savings. This paper argues that even if the child-support ratio continues to decline in the future due to China's population policy, it can only have a very limited impact on savings. With the decline of the mortality rate and the prolongation of life expectancy, the dependency ratio of the elderly will gradually increase, thus increasing the amount of social savings to a certain extent. The empirical results of regional model show that the influence of old-age dependency ratio on savings is the biggest in eastern China, followed by western region, and relatively low in central region, while the impact of child-rearing ratio on savings is relatively low. The degree of influence in each region is small. On this basis, the paper analyzes the regional difference of the effect of age structure on savings. In addition, in the empirical analysis, it is found that the savings in the previous period have a significant positive impact on the current savings, and savings have greater inertia. Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward several suggestions to promote the increase of consumption and the decrease of savings in China.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.2;F126

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