基于GIS-ArcMap的三峡库区各区县适度人口的情景模拟及预测分析

发布时间：2018-05-19 23:16

本文选题：适度人口 + 情景模拟　；参考：《南方人口》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文计算了三峡库区2001-2013年的适度人口,结合适度人口评价的3个指标体系,即生态、土地资源、经济,设计了现状延续导向、生态环境保护导向、社会经济发展导向和协调平衡发展导向4种发展情景,通过情景模拟、GIS-ArcMap空间分析等方法,预测了三峡库区2021年的常住人口以及4种情景下的子承载适度人口和综合适度人口,比较预测的适度人口和常住人口,结果表明:未来三峡库区各区县适度人口和常住人口发展并不一致,存在巨大的差距,人口赤字和盈余并存,对待三峡库区的人口问题各地区应该认清自身发展的短板,找到适合的发展路径。
[Abstract]:This paper calculates the moderate population in the three Gorges Reservoir area from 2001 to 2013, and combines the three index systems of moderate population evaluation, that is, ecology, land resources, economy, and designs the orientation of status quo continuation and ecological environment protection. Social and economic development orientation and balanced development orientation are four kinds of development scenarios. By using the method of scenario simulation and GIS-ArcMap spatial analysis, the resident population in 2021 and sub-bearing moderate population and comprehensive moderate population in the three Gorges Reservoir area are predicted. Compared with the predicted moderate population and resident population, the results show that the future development of moderate population and resident population in various districts and counties of the three Gorges Reservoir area is not consistent, there is a huge gap, and the population deficit and surplus coexist. To deal with the population problems in the three Gorges Reservoir area, all regions should recognize the shortcomings of their own development and find a suitable development path.
【作者单位】：重庆工商大学融智学院;重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“三峡库区独特地理单元‘环境—经济—社会’发展变化研究”(批准号11&ZD161) 基于GIS的重庆市人口老龄化时空分布变化和区域差异研究(项目编号:20168003)资助
【分类号】：C924.2

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