山东省人口与经济时空格局演变及空间匹配性研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 08:17

本文选题：匹配关系 + 空间分布　；参考：《曲阜师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口与经济之间的关系是区域可持续发展的核心问题。人口与经济空间分布一致表现为区域均衡发展,人口与经济空间分布不一致表现为区域不均衡发展。适度的不匹配可以促进区域要素流动,提升区域经济发展效率,不匹配程度过高则会对区域可持续发展产生不利影响。山东省是我国的人口、经济大省,研究其人口与经济空间分布及其对应关系,剖析影响两要素空间分布关系的因素,提出相应对策建议,旨在为政府决策提供参考,指导制定人口与经济发展规划,对区域协调、可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究以山东省17地市为研究对象,首先通过与其它人口或经济大省相比较,宏观说明山东省常住人口、经济的空间分布形势,再用增长速度、密度指标和地理集中度分别对2000-2015年山东省常住人口、经济的空间格局演变进行研究。比较人口与经济分布状况,基本判断山东省人口与经济的空间匹配关系;构建人口与经济空间不匹配指数,具体分析山东省人口与经济空间匹配关系的区域状况和时间变化趋势;进一步探讨山东省人口与经济空间分布关系的影响因素,并提出对策建议以改善常住人口与经济空间分布匹配关系。根据上述研究,结果表明,山东省常住人口分布的不均衡性比广东、河南、四川小,青岛、济南等胶济铁路沿线地区常住人口增长较快,西南密集东北稀疏的人口分布格局仍未改变,人口向济南、枣庄、青岛和淄博等不断集中。山东省经济发展相对差异程度比广东、江苏、浙江较小,人均经济发展水平的地区差异性却较明显;2000年以来山东省区域经济增长速度普遍减慢,经济空间格局基本没有变化,经济集中在胶济青荣沿线和东部沿海地区,地区经济并未发生跨越式发展。由此可见,山东省常住人口与经济空间分布不匹配。根据人口与经济空间不匹配指数大小,将17地市分为经济超前区、相对匹配区、经济滞后区三种类型。经济超前区范围不变,零散分布在半岛丘陵区、黄河三角洲和鲁中地区;经济滞后区范围减小,主要分布在鲁西北和鲁南地区;滨州、济宁、泰安由经济滞后区成为相对匹配区,相对匹配区的范围扩大并介于前两类地区之间;从时间序列上看,无论是各类型区还是山东省,常住人口与经济空间不匹配程度有所降低。山东省人口与经济空间不匹配是多种因素共同作用的结果,主要有自然条件和历史因素、人口流动壁垒、城镇化水平、产业结构状况、市场机制作用、区域发展战略与政府支持力度。因此,为推进山东省人口与经济分布匹配发展,可考虑以下策略:打破人口流动壁垒,促进人口合理流动;推进新型城镇化进程,落实城镇服务工作;完善市场机制,有效配置区域生产要素;合理推进产业梯度转移,优化产业结构与布局;充分发挥政府作用与适度实行区域偏向性政策。
[Abstract]:The relationship between population and economy is the core problem of regional sustainable development. The spatial distribution of population and economy is consistent with regional balanced development, and the spatial distribution of population and economy is not consistent with regional unbalanced development. Moderate mismatch can promote the flow of regional elements and improve the efficiency of regional economic development. If the degree of mismatch is too high, it will have a negative impact on regional sustainable development. Shandong Province is a large province of population and economy in China. This paper studies the spatial distribution of population and economy and its corresponding relationship, analyzes the factors influencing the spatial distribution of the two elements, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions in order to provide a reference for the government to make decisions. Guiding the formulation of population and economic development plans is of great significance to regional coordination and sustainable development. This study takes 17 cities of Shandong Province as the research object. Firstly, by comparing with other large population or economic provinces, the paper shows the spatial distribution situation of the resident population and economy in Shandong Province, and then uses the growth rate. Density index and geographical concentration degree were used to study the spatial pattern evolution of resident population and economy in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015. By comparing the distribution of population and economy, we basically judge the spatial matching relationship between population and economy in Shandong Province, and construct the spatial mismatch index between population and economy. The paper analyzes the regional situation and time change trend of spatial matching relationship between population and economy in Shandong Province, and further discusses the influencing factors of spatial distribution between population and economy in Shandong Province. Countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the matching relationship between resident population and economic spatial distribution. According to the above study, the results show that the distribution of resident population in Shandong Province is growing faster than that in Guangdong, Henan, Sichuan, Qingdao, Jinan and other areas along the Jiaoji Railway. The sparse population distribution pattern in the dense northeast of southwest China remains unchanged, and the population is concentrated in Jinan, Zaozhuang, Qingdao and Zibo. The relative differences in economic development in Shandong Province are smaller than those in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, but the regional differences in the level of per capita economic development are relatively obvious. Since 2000, the growth rate of the regional economy in Shandong Province has generally slowed down, and the economic spatial pattern has basically not changed. The economy is concentrated along Jiaoji Qingrong and the eastern coastal areas, and the regional economy has not developed by leaps and bounds. Thus, Shandong Province resident population and economic spatial distribution does not match. According to the size of population and economic spatial mismatch index, 17 cities are divided into three types: economic advance area, relative matching area and economic lag area. The scope of the economic advance zone remains unchanged and is scattered in the hilly peninsula region, the Yellow River Delta and the central Shandong region; the economic lag area decreases, mainly in the northwest and southern Shandong regions; and in Binzhou, Jining, Taian becomes the relative matching area from the economic lag area, the scope of the relative matching area is expanded and lies between the first two types of areas, and in terms of time series, whether in each type of area or Shandong Province, the degree of permanent resident population and economic space mismatch has been reduced. The mismatch between population and economic space in Shandong Province is the result of many factors, such as natural conditions and historical factors, population flow barriers, urbanization level, industrial structure and market mechanism. Regional development strategy and government support. Therefore, in order to promote the matching development of population and economic distribution in Shandong Province, the following strategies can be considered: to break down the barriers of population flow, to promote the rational flow of population, to promote the process of new urbanization, to implement urban services, and to perfect the market mechanism. Effective allocation of regional factors of production; rational promotion of industrial gradient transfer, optimization of industrial structure and layout; give full play to the role of the government and the appropriate implementation of regional bias policy.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;C924.2

【参考文献】