全年龄人口死亡模型构建及应用——以江苏省为例

发布时间：2018-05-25 05:00

本文选题：死亡率 + 死亡水平　；参考：《南方人口》2013年03期

【摘要】：人口死亡特征不仅具有时间和区域属性,同时也具有年龄属性,多重属性决定了人口死亡规律的复杂性。在研究儿童少年期、青壮年期以及中老年期人口死亡模型的基础上,以江苏省为例构建了基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型,并对江苏省人口死亡过程进行了研究。研究表明:基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型能够细致刻画人口死亡过程依年龄变化的特点;江苏省儿童少年期、青壮年期和中老年期人口死亡模式可以分别采用威布尔对数线性模型、三次多项式模型和罗吉斯蒂模型来描述;近年来江苏省人口死亡水平不断下降,但各年龄层死亡水平下降特点不尽相同。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of population death not only have the attribute of time and region, but also have the attribute of age, which determines the complexity of the law of population death. Based on the study of the death models of children and adolescents, the middle-aged and middle-aged population death models, a full-age population death model based on local population death model was constructed in Jiangsu Province, and the process of population death in Jiangsu Province was studied. The study shows that the full-age population death model based on local population death model can describe the characteristics of the process of population death with age in detail. The death patterns of young and middle-aged people can be described by Weibull logarithmic linear model, cubic polynomial model and Rojisti model, respectively. In recent years, the level of population death in Jiangsu Province has been declining. However, the decreasing characteristics of death level in different age groups were different.
【作者单位】：河海大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：江苏高校哲学社会科学重大项目"江苏人口老龄化对经济社会发展影响及其对策研究"(列项编号:2010ZDAXM004) 2010年江苏省第六次全国人口普查招标重点课题
【分类号】：C92-05

【参考文献】