新生代农民工二孩生育意愿及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 17:02

本文选题：新生代农民工 + 生育意愿　；参考：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：新生代农民工已经成为外出农民工的主体并且在整个经济社会中发挥着越来越大的影响。随着我国城市化水平的不断提升,新生代农民工在城市的社会融合进程也在不断加快。这个群体正处于婚育期,他们的生育状况必然会对我国的生育水平产生影响,他们的生育意愿也在一定程度上能够反映出我国当前全面二孩政策的政策目标。本文首先对新生代农民工、生育意愿及生育意愿影响因素等进行文献综述,明确本文研究重点和理论支撑。其次,利用2014年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查C卷数据,通过对3058份已育一孩新生代农民工样本进行分析,从新生代农民工二孩生育意愿的外显结果即意愿生育数量和意愿生育时间角度出发,发现已育一孩新生代农民工具有较低的二孩生育意愿,仅有不足1/4新生代农民工明确表示要生育二孩,只有1/3左右有意愿生育二孩打算的人口给出了明确的二孩计划生育时间(明年、后年)。最后,新生代农民工二孩生育意愿的内在动机或者说导致二孩生育意愿形成的影响因素,分别从人口学因素、社会经济变量、不同生育政策和社会融合程度四大方面,对二孩生育意愿影响因素进行单因素和回归分析。结果显示二孩生育意愿受年龄、一孩性别、独生属性及生育政策有显著影响,社会融合因素无显著性意义。总体来看,新生代农民工二孩生育意愿偏低,在二孩生育选择过程中倾向多角度整体分析,多半已育一孩新生代农民工二孩生育意愿处于谨慎考虑阶段。
[Abstract]:The new generation of migrant workers have become the main body of migrant workers and play a more and more important role in the whole society. With the development of urbanization in China, the process of social integration of the new generation of migrant workers in the city is accelerating. This group is in the period of marriage and childbearing, their fertility situation will inevitably have an impact on the fertility level of our country, and their fertility will to some extent reflect the policy goal of our country's current comprehensive two-child policy. In this paper, the new generation of migrant workers, fertility will and fertility intention factors, such as literature review, clear the focus of this study and theoretical support. Secondly, by using the data of Volume C of the National Health and Family Planning Survey of the floating population in 2014, this paper analyzes 3058 samples of the new generation of migrant workers who have already given birth to one child. Starting from the explicit result of the new generation of migrant workers' desire to have a second child, that is, the number of willing to have children and the time of willing to give birth, it is found that the new generation of migrant workers with one child has a lower willingness to have a second child. Only less than a quarter of the new generation of migrant workers have made it clear that they want to have two children, and only about a third of the population who have the intention to have a second child has given a clear plan for a second child (next year, the year after that). Finally, the intrinsic motivation of the new generation of migrant workers' desire to have children or the influence factors that lead to the formation of the second child's desire are divided into four aspects: demographic factors, social and economic variables, different fertility policies and the degree of social integration. Single factor and regression analysis were used to analyze the influencing factors of the second child's desire to have children. The results showed that the desire to have children with two children was significantly affected by age, sex of one child, attributes of single child and fertility policy, but there was no significant difference in factors of social integration. On the whole, the desire of the second child of the new generation of migrant workers is low, and they tend to analyze the whole from many angles in the course of the choice of the second child, and most of them are at the stage of careful consideration in the stage of careful consideration of the desire to have the second child of the new generation of migrant workers.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21

【参考文献】