浙江省产业、人口与土地非农化的协调性分析

发布时间：2018-06-13 09:23

本文选题：城市化 + 产业非农化　；参考：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年09期

【摘要】：产业、人口和土地非农化是城市化的基本内涵与表现,其协调性关系到城市化的可持续发展。运用协调耦合度模型和重心法分析1999年至2011年浙江省城市化过程中产业、人口与土地非农化的协调性与空间均衡性,通过皮尔逊相关性检验协调耦合度的影响因素,结果表明:1研究期全省产业、人口与土地非农化的协调耦合度得到持续提高,由0.54上升至0.76,从中协调耦合等级发展为较协调耦合等级,各市协调耦合度及其等级都获得相应提高,但"北高南低,南北分化"的空间差异特征依然显著;2以2005年为界,前半期全省及省内各市协调耦合度增速较快,但2005年之后显著放缓,说明促进各要素协调非农化的难度在上升;3地区不平衡未得到有效控制,西北部人口非农化速度领先、东北部产业非农化较快、中南部土地非农化超前,阻碍了综合协调耦合度的提高;4经济发展、城乡居民收入与公共服务水平,就业结构和土地资源禀赋等是影响产业、人口与土地协调非农化的重要因素。今后产业、人口和土地非农化协调性的提高将依赖于各要素非农化相互作用和地区平衡性的改善。东北部地区需着重推进产业升级和城乡一体化建设;西北部地区提高失业、住房等社会保障覆盖面,促进进城农民工市民化;中南部巩固农业的同时积极发展二三产业,增加非农就业,改善公共服务,同时优化土地利用管理,控制城市低效蔓延。
[Abstract]:Industry, population and land non-agriculture are the basic connotation and expression of urbanization, and its coordination is related to the sustainable development of urbanization. The coordinated coupling degree model and gravity center method are used to analyze the coordination and spatial equilibrium of non-agricultural industry, population and land in the urbanization process of Zhejiang Province from 1999 to 2011. The influencing factors of coordinated coupling degree are tested by Pearson correlation. The results showed that the coordinated coupling degree between population and land was continuously increased from 0.54 to 0.76 during the study period of the whole province, and the level of coordination coupling developed into a more coordinated coupling level. The coordination coupling degree and its grade of each city have been improved correspondingly, but the spatial difference characteristics of "north high and south low, north and south differentiation" are still marked by 2005. In the first half of this period, the coordination coupling degree of the whole province and the cities in the province is increasing rapidly. But after 2005, there was a significant slowdown, indicating that the difficulty of promoting the coordination of various elements in the non-agricultural areas was not effectively controlled, the northwestern population was in the lead, the industry in the northeast was fast, and the land in the central and southern regions was ahead of agriculture. It hinders the development of economy, income of urban and rural residents and the level of public service, employment structure and endowment of land resources are the important factors that influence industry, population and land coordination. In the future, the improvement of the coordination between population and land will depend on the non-agricultural interaction of various factors and the improvement of regional balance. The northeast region should focus on promoting industrial upgrading and urban-rural integration construction; the northwest region should increase the coverage of social security such as unemployment, housing, and so on, so as to promote the urbanization of migrant workers in cities; while consolidating agriculture in the central and southern parts of the country, it should actively develop the secondary and tertiary industries. Increase non-agricultural employment, improve public services, optimize land use management, control urban inefficiency spread.
【作者单位】：浙江大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“促进区域协调发展的差别化土地调控政策研究”(编号:13AZD012)
【分类号】：F127;C924.21;F321.1;F224

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