全面二孩政策实施对我国人口老龄化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 01:46

本文选题：全面二孩 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《华中科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年02期

【摘要】：我国人口的快速老龄化引起国内外的广泛关注。在"全面二孩"政策正式落地的现实背景下,政策调整究竟能够对人口老龄化产生多大的影响,需要有科学的人口预测才能够说明。文章利用全国第五次、第六次人口普查、历年统计年鉴等数据,采用年龄移算和队列要素分析等人口预测方法,对"全面二孩"政策调整影响人口老龄化的效应进行实证研究。研究表明,"全面二孩"政策实施可以有效缓解人口老龄化进程,预测期末,政策调整生育率低、中和高方案下老龄化水平比基准方案分别降低了约2.2、5.96和8.12个百分点;同时"全面二孩"政策有助于降低老年抚养比,稀释劳动力供养负担。但是政策调整对人口老龄化影响的强度取决于育龄妇女对政策调整的响应程度。
[Abstract]:The rapid aging of the population in China has attracted wide attention at home and abroad. Under the realistic background of the "comprehensive two child" policy, how can the policy adjustment be able to have much influence on the population aging, and need scientific population forecast to explain. The article uses the fifth times, the sixth census, the annual statistical yearbook and so on. According to the population forecasting methods such as age shift and queue factor analysis, the effect of "total two child" policy adjustment on population aging is empirically studied. The study shows that the implementation of "total two child" policy can effectively alleviate the process of population aging. The quasi scheme decreased by about 2.2,5.96 and 8.12 percentage points, while the "total two child" policy could help to reduce the elderly dependency ratio and dilute the burden of labor supply. However, the intensity of the impact of policy adjustment on population aging depends on the response of women of childbearing age to the policy adjustment.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学社会学院;
【基金】：华中科技大学985项目“中国生育政策调整与人口结构变化研究”(2014ISH02);华中科技大学科技创新基金资助
【分类号】：C924.2

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