我国流动人口态势分析与趋势研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 04:25

本文选题：流动人口 + 农村剩余劳动力　；参考：《南京信息工程大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着工业化和国民经济的不断发展,户籍制度等限制性政策的松动,大量农村劳动力离开本乡本土外出务工,这引发了中国大规模的人口流动。目前我国拥有6.7亿多农村人口,他们将不断进入城市寻求发展,因此正确分析流动人口的现状及转移趋势,充分挖掘劳动力的供给潜力对中国经济发展和社会稳定有着重大意义。本文借鉴国内外研究经验及模式,并结合我国具体国情,设计发放了流动人口调查问卷,对流动人口的基本特征、职业分布、社会环境及潜在流动人口情况等进行了具体分析。在此基础上,首次将结构方程模型应用到流动人口迁移意愿的研究中,选取经济条件、生活环境、社会福利保障、迁移意愿4个潜在变量,并通过问卷中的若干个显在变量进行测量,对问卷数据进行分析检验后,最终得到潜在变量的标准化路径系数,即对流动人口迁移意愿的影响系数。在分析流动人口迁移意愿过程中需要充分考虑流动人口对工作、生活环境等的满意度,本文首次将属性层次模型(AHM)和模糊综合评价法运用到我国流动人口满意度评价中,通过建立递阶层次结构的指标体系,确定各指标的属性权重,然后分层次进行模糊综合评判,评价结果表明我国流动人口对现有工作、生活表示基本满意,满意度评价分数为70.17。对我国流动人口趋势进行研究时,必须对农村剩余劳动力数量做准确的预算,本文采用CD生产函数法,对此进行了短期预测。分析表明我国农村剩余劳动力数量主要集中在18000万-24000万,从2004年开始呈现减少趋势(除2008、2009年受全球经济危机影响)。大量流动人口的出现,农村剩余劳动不断进入城市寻求发展,这些现象加速了我国城市化进程。本文采用联合国法对我国城市化率进行测算,预测结果指出到2030年我国城市化率将达到73%,这对我国的就业、环境及资源等都提出了严峻挑战。
[Abstract]:With the constant development of industrialization and national economy and the loosening of restrictive policies such as the household registration system, a large number of rural labors left their native areas to work, which led to large-scale population mobility in China. At present, there are more than 670 million rural people in our country, and they will continue to enter the city to seek development. Therefore, we should correctly analyze the current situation and the transfer trend of the floating population. Fully tapping the supply potential of labor force is of great significance to China's economic development and social stability. This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign research experience and the pattern, unifies our country concrete situation, has designed and distributed the floating population questionnaire, has carried on the concrete analysis to the floating population basic characteristic, the occupation distribution, the social environment and the potential floating population situation and so on. On this basis, the structural equation model is first applied to the study of the migration intention of the floating population, and four potential variables are selected: economic conditions, living environment, social welfare security, and the willingness to migrate. Through the measurement of several explicit variables in the questionnaire, the standardized path coefficient of the potential variable, that is, the influence coefficient on the floating population's willingness to migrate, is obtained after the analysis and test of the questionnaire data. It is necessary to consider the satisfaction of the floating population to the work and living environment in the process of analyzing the migration intention of the floating population. In this paper, the attribute hierarchy model (AHM) and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to the evaluation of the satisfaction degree of the floating population in our country for the first time. Through establishing the index system of hierarchical structure, the attribute weight of each index is determined, and then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out in different levels. The evaluation results show that the floating population in our country is basically satisfied with the existing work and life, and the satisfaction evaluation score is 70.17. In order to study the trend of floating population in China, we must make an accurate budget for the number of rural surplus labor force. In this paper, the CD production function method is used to predict this problem in the short term. The analysis shows that the number of rural surplus labor in China is mainly from 180 million to 240 million, and has been decreasing since 2004 (except 2008, 2009 is affected by the global economic crisis). With the emergence of a large number of floating population, rural surplus labor continues to enter the city to seek development, which accelerates the process of urbanization in China. This paper uses the United Nations method to measure the urbanization rate of our country. The forecast result points out that the urbanization rate of our country will reach 73% by 2030, which poses a severe challenge to employment, environment and resources of our country.
【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C921

【引证文献】