影响全面二孩政策新增出生人口规模的几个关键因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-21 18:29

本文选题：全面二孩 + 生育意愿　；参考：《学海》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文以1990、2000和2010年全国人口普查数据为基础,对单独二孩生育政策后,全面放开二孩生育政策新增育龄妇女目标人群,生育意愿与生育计划进行分析,对2000年以来育龄妇女的生育水平和出生漏报进行估计,2015年全国15-49岁全面二孩政策新增目标人群在9000万以内,其中25-39岁育龄妇女新增二孩政策目标人群在5000万以内,40岁及以上二孩政策育龄妇女在4000万左右,占目标人群的比例在40%以上。2015年全面二孩政策2016年-2020年每年比较有可能的新增出生人口在230万-430万左右,出生堆积期间每年出生人口规模在1900万以内,5年累计全面二孩政策新增出生人口在1800万以内。出生人口堆积期间出生人口总量达到或超过2300万的可能性不大,即与现行生育政策不变相比,全面二孩每年新增出生人口不太可能达到或超过800万。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the 1990 / 2000 and 2010 national population censuses, this paper analyzes the new target population of women of childbearing age, the fertility intention and the fertility plan after the policy of single two-child fertility. This paper estimates the fertility level and underreporting of births of women of childbearing age since 2000. In 2015, the new target population of the national comprehensive policy on two-child aged 15-49 is less than 90 million. Among them, the number of women aged 25 to 39 who have increased the number of two-child children within 50 million years and those aged 40 years and above is about 40 million. More than 40 percent of the target population. The overall two-child policy in 2015 is likely to increase the number of births between 2.3 million and 4.3 million each year from 2016 to 2020. During the period of birth accumulation, the annual birth size is less than 19 million, and the total number of new births within 5 years is less than 18 million. It is unlikely that the total number of births will reach or exceed 23 million during the period of birth population accumulation, that is, compared with the current fertility policy, the total number of new births per year is unlikely to reach or exceed 8 million.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“生育意愿与国家生育政策”(项目号:2015KEY03)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.21

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