中国近十年城镇人口增长的“挂锁”态势分析及启示

发布时间：2018-06-23 03:39

本文选题：“挂锁”态势 + 城镇人口增量　；参考：《中国人口科学》2017年02期

【摘要】：中国经济的进一步发展必然要求进一步增加城镇人口,提高城市化率。但是,2010年以来,中国城镇人口增量有所下降。如何有效地提高各个省份的城镇人口成为各级政府的施政难题,而城市化率的提升又涉及多种复杂因素。文章以省为单位,通过研究中国近10年来城镇人口的增量,结合计算机图形技术,发现城镇人口增长的"挂锁"态势,以及与胡焕庸线的位置关系。文章结合西方移民理论,将城镇人口的增长作为一种移民过程进行研究,分析城市对移民的拉力和阻力因素,得出影响城市化率的6个可以量化的变量,再通过定性比较分析法(QCA)得到提升城市化率的多个路径模型,最终得出以下结论:(1)拉动城镇人口超过平均增长的首要因素不是收入的增加,而是良好的义务教育环境;其次是低房价。(2)国际移民理论的基本原理可以运用于中国有户籍制度的城市化情境中,但某些影响因素有所不同。(3)要使本地区人口超平均增长,并不需要具备所有拉力因素,只需结合自身优势,扬长避短,强化关键因素。另外,文章预测,到2050年胡焕庸线以西的城市人口将超过全国城市人口的30%。
[Abstract]:The further development of China's economy will inevitably require further increase of urban population and urbanization rate. However, since 2010, China's urban population growth has declined. How to effectively improve the urban population in various provinces has become a difficult problem for governments at all levels, and the increase of urbanization rate involves a variety of complex factors. By studying the increment of urban population in China in the past 10 years and combining with computer graphics technology, this paper finds out the "padlock" situation of urban population growth and the position relationship between the padlock and the Hu Huanyong line. Combining with the western immigration theory, this paper studies the urban population growth as a migration process, analyzes the pull and resistance factors of the city to the immigrants, and draws six quantifiable variables that affect the urbanization rate. Then through qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to obtain multiple path models to improve the urbanization rate, and finally draw the following conclusions: (1) the first factor to pull the urban population to exceed the average growth is not the increase of income, but a good environment of compulsory education; Secondly, low house prices. (2) the basic principles of international migration theory can be applied to the urbanization situation of China's household registration system, but some influencing factors are different. (3) in order to make the population of the region increase more evenly, it is not necessary to have all the pull factors. Only need to combine their own advantages, strengthen the strengths and weaknesses of the key factors. In addition, the article predicts that by 2050, the urban population west of the Hu Huanyong line will be more than 30 percent of the country's urban population.
【作者单位】：新加坡南洋学院;
【分类号】：C924.2

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