我国人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响

发布时间：2018-06-23 20:56

本文选题：居民消费率 + 消费结构　；参考：《华南理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：过去三十多年来,特别是上世纪九十年代末期以来,我国最终居民消费率一直呈下降趋势,除了其他因素以外,无疑也与中国总人口年龄结构变化有关。论文首先分析了改革开放以来我国人口年龄结构和居民消费的变化,着重阐述了人口年龄结构影响居民消费规模以及消费结构的机理。然后,采用2005-2014年的省际面板数据,将少抚养比和老抚养比作为人口年龄结构的变量引入,使用固定效应模型针对我国人口年龄结构对居民消费率的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,少抚养比对居民消费率产生正影响,老抚养比对居民消费率产生负影响。还采用我国2000年至2014年的时间序列数据,使用灰色关联度分析法对我国人口年龄结构与居民消费结构的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,少儿人口对食品、衣着以及文教娱乐项目的消费支出影响较大,劳动人口对衣着、居住和家庭设备及用品项目的消费支出影响较大,老年人口对于医疗保健项目的消费支出影响较大。并且对于农村居民的老年人口来说,对居住项目的消费支出影响也较大。从总体上来说,人口年龄结构对农村居民消费结构的影响要稍大于对城镇居民消费结构的影响。最后,本文在理论分析和实证分析的基础上,结合我国目前人口年龄结构和居民消费的现状,对政府提出了一些相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past thirty years, especially since the late 90s of the last century, the consumption rate of our country's final residents has been declining. In addition to other factors, it is undoubtedly related to the changes in the age structure of the total population of China. The age structure of the population affects the scale of consumption and the mechanism of consumption structure. Then, the interprovincial panel data of 2005-2014 years are used to introduce the variable and the old dependency ratio as the age structure of the population. The relationship between the population age structure and the population consumption rate is tested by the fixed effect model. The results show that the relationship between the population age structure and the population consumption rate is tested. There is a positive impact on the consumption rate of the resident consumption ratio, and the old dependency ratio has a negative impact on the consumption rate of the residents. The time series data from 2000 to 2014 in China are also used to test the relationship between the age structure of the population and the consumption structure of the residents in China. The result shows that the children are dressed for food. As well as the consumption expenditure of cultural and educational entertainment projects has a greater impact on the consumption expenditure on clothing, housing and household equipment and supplies, the elderly population has a greater impact on the consumption expenditure of health care projects. And for the elderly population of rural residents, the consumption expenditure on residential projects is also larger. In general, the influence of population age structure on the consumption structure of rural residents is slightly greater than the impact on the consumption structure of urban residents. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to the government based on the current population age structure and the current situation of residents' consumption in China.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.1

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