从人口因素看中国经济未来20年的潜在增长速度

发布时间：2018-07-01 13:41

本文选题：人口因素 + 经济增长　；参考：《上海经济研究》2013年01期

【摘要】：本文分八个部分:第一部分分析1979年到2011年人口数量的演变情况并预测未来20年的人口数量变动趋势;第二部分分析1979年到2011年人口年龄结构的演变情况并预测未来20年的年龄结构变动趋势,其中包括劳动力数量的分析预测;第三部分分析1979-2011年就业数量及其结构的演变情况并预测未来20年的趋势;第四部分分析1979-2011年人口城乡结构的演变情况并预测未来20年的趋势;第五部分分析1979-2011年人口质量的演变情况并预测未来20年的趋势;第六部分分析人口因素中其他可能影响经济增长的因素,如劳动力的有效劳动时间、人口性别比,等等;第七部分进行综合分析;第八部分指出了需要进一步研究的课题。本文的结论是,如果中国经济能够在未来的20年中,在技术进步、制度、经济结构的调整等方面取得预期的进展,那么未来20年中国的潜在经济增长速度年均为6%。其中,前10年年均增速为7%,后10年年均增速为5%。
[Abstract]:This paper is divided into eight parts: the first part analyzes the evolution of population from 1979 to 2011 and forecasts the trend of population change in the next 20 years; The second part analyzes the evolution of population age structure from 1979 to 2011 and forecasts the trend of age structure change in the next 20 years, including the analysis and forecast of labor force quantity. The third part analyzes the evolution of employment volume and its structure in 1979-2011 and forecasts the trend in the next 20 years, and the fourth part analyzes the evolution of urban and rural structure of population in 1979-2011 and forecasts the trend in the next 20 years. Part V analyses the evolution of population quality from 1979 to 2011 and forecasts trends over the next 20 years; part VI analyses other demographic factors that may affect economic growth, such as the effective working hours of the labour force, the sex ratio of the population, and so on; The seventh part makes a comprehensive analysis, and the eighth part points out the subject that needs further research. The conclusion of this paper is that if the Chinese economy can make the expected progress in technological progress, institution and economic structure adjustment in the next 20 years, then the potential economic growth rate of China in the next 20 years will be 6% per year. Among them, the first 10 years of average annual growth rate of 7, 10 years after the average annual growth rate of 5.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院经济研究所;
【分类号】：C924.24

【共引文献】