人口集聚对区域经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 15:33

本文选题：人口集聚 + 经济增长　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人是知识和技术的载体,是一切经济活动的主体,是最有价值的资源。人口总是倾向于向能够提供更好的生存条件和发展机会的地区集聚。因此,基于我国区域发展不平衡的国情,人口从经济欠发达的中西部区域向经济较发达的东部区域大规模集聚,成为经济发展的必然现象和重要的现实问题。从全球经济发展来看,人口集聚与区域经济增长存在耦合关系,如日本东京都市圈作为全国政治、文化、经济中心,人口数量和密度一直在世界前列,2016年人口超过3700万,GDP超过1.5万亿美元。改革开放以来,随着我国开放程度的不断提高,以及东部优先发展的不平衡发展战略的制定,区域间经济发展差距不断扩大,在户籍制度管制不断放松之后,人口开始大规模向经济发达的东部沿海地区集聚,逐渐在东部形成京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大都市圈,其中,长江三角洲都市圈经济实力最强、人口吸引力最大,2015年GDP高达137967.9亿元,占全国GDP总量20.4%,常住人口15930万人,占全国人口总量11.6%。这种人口大规模迁移集聚的现象对我国人口分布、产业结构调整、区域经济发展和区域经济战略制定影响极大。本文针对人口集聚与区域经济增长的关系,在理论部分以区域经济学、城市经济学、空间经济学、人口经济学中相关理论为基础,分析了与二者存在紧密关联的人口迁移、产业结构、城市化等问题,并探索其内在关联和影响机制。再分别从东中西部、南北部、三大城市群三个层面,分析我国人口集聚现状,通过对地理联系率、地理集中指数和不均衡指数(蒋子龙等,2014)的测算,分析了2005-2015年我国人口集聚与经济发展的演进方向和特点。实证部分以长江三角洲16个核心市为例,首先对这16个城市2006-2015年JJD指数的计算,其人口分布和集聚程度,并通过GIS软件对结果进行模拟,并对结果进行分析。通过利于2005-2015年的面板数据,利用STATA软件建立生产函数的固定效应模型,探讨2005-2015年长三角核心地区人口集聚的发展过程对区域经济增长的影响。最后,通过理论和实证分析,得出人口集聚对区域经济增长呈现倒U型,即在一定程度内的人口集聚可以促进区域经济增长,一旦超出一定范围,过度的集聚反而会对经济增长产生负面的影响。长三角核心16市的人口集聚程度已经到达拐点处,未来通过产业优化升级和产业转移,带动整个长三角区域共同发展,缩小区域间差距,是核心16市的主要发展方向。另外,长三角周边其他经济欠发达区域,应充分发挥地理优势,做好产业承接工作,实现产业梯度转移,缓解我国城乡经济二元结构,缩小区域差异,促进经济良性循环和可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Man is the carrier of knowledge and technology, the main body of all economic activities and the most valuable resource. Populations tend to agglomerate to regions that provide better living conditions and development opportunities. Therefore, based on the unbalanced regional development of our country, the population agglomeration from the economically underdeveloped central and western regions to the economically more developed eastern regions has become an inevitable phenomenon and an important practical problem of economic development. From the perspective of global economic development, there is a coupling relationship between population concentration and regional economic growth. For example, Tokyo Metropolitan Circle in Japan is the political, cultural and economic center of the country. Population numbers and densities have been among the highest in the world, with a population of more than $1.5 trillion in 2016. Since the reform and opening up, with the continuous improvement of the opening degree of our country, and the formulation of the unbalanced development strategy of priority development in the east, the gap between the regional economic development has been continuously widening, and the control of the household registration system has been continuously relaxed. The population began to gather in the economically developed eastern coastal areas on a large scale, and gradually formed three metropolitan areas in the east, namely, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area has the strongest economic strength. Population attractiveness is greatest, reaching 13.79679 trillion yuan in 2015, accounting for 20.4 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The resident population is 159.3 million, accounting for 11.6 percent of the country's total population. This phenomenon of mass migration and agglomeration has great influence on the population distribution, industrial structure adjustment, regional economic development and regional economic strategy formulation in China. In view of the relationship between population agglomeration and regional economic growth, this paper analyzes the closely related population migration based on the theories of regional economics, urban economics, spatial economics and population economics. Industrial structure, urbanization and other issues, and explore its internal relationship and impact mechanism. Then, from the three levels of East, West, North and South, three urban agglomerations, this paper analyzes the present situation of population agglomeration in China, and calculates the geographic connection rate, geographical concentration index and unbalanced index (Jiang Zilong etc.). This paper analyzes the evolution direction and characteristics of population agglomeration and economic development in China from 2005 to 2015. The empirical part takes 16 core cities in the Yangtze River Delta as an example. Firstly, it calculates the JJD index from 2006 to 2015, its population distribution and concentration degree, and simulates the results by GIS software, and analyzes the results. Based on panel data from 2005 to 2015, the fixed effect model of production function is established by using Stata software, and the influence of population agglomeration on regional economic growth in the core region of Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2015 is discussed. Finally, through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is concluded that population agglomeration can promote regional economic growth to a certain extent, once beyond a certain range. Excessive agglomeration will have a negative impact on economic growth. The population agglomeration degree of the core 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta has reached the inflection point. In the future, the main development direction of the 16 cities is to promote the common development of the whole Yangtze River Delta region and narrow the gap between the regions through the optimization and upgrading of industry and industrial transfer. In addition, other economically underdeveloped regions around the Yangtze River Delta should give full play to their geographical advantages, do a good job of undertaking industry, realize industrial gradient transfer, ease the dual structure of urban and rural economy in China, and narrow regional differences. To promote a virtuous economic cycle and sustainable development.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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