贵州省人口普查年龄数据质量分析

发布时间：2018-07-05 16:19

本文选题：人口普查 + 年龄数据　；参考：《贵州大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口普查数据质量是人口分析研究的前提,是确保研究结论的可信保障,对于人口普查,人口年龄结构数据是最基础的人口普查数据,年龄数据的优劣对人口各项指标都有极大的影响,分析研究普查数据之前对年龄数据质量的评估是关键。本文对贵州省第六次人口普查和第五次人口普查的年龄数据进行检验,探究贵州省人口普查年龄数据质量。利用人口队列比较法,年龄指向偏好检验法和国际通用指数法,来检验贵州省第六次人口普查和第五次人口普查年龄数据的质量。通过纵向比较贵州省第六次、第五次和第四次人口普查的年龄数据。年龄数据检验结果表明,贵州省第六次人口普查年龄数据质量较好,仅低年龄段出现漏报现象,无明显的年龄指向偏好,一致性较好;五普的年龄数据质量较差,存在着以0和8结尾的年龄偏好行为,存在人口漏报,瞒报问题,女性漏报多于男性。贵州省少数民族也存在年龄堆积,影响明显高于汉族。相比六普与五普的年龄数据的质量,揭示贵州省人口普查年龄数据质量在不断的提升。横向对比2010年全国、广西壮族自治区和上海市的人口普查年龄数据质量,发现贵州省第六次人口普查年龄数据稍优于广西和上海,明显好于全国的年龄数据质量。文章最后总结出导致数据误差的五种主要原因:人口流动与人口迁移、出生人口漏报、少数民族申报误差、普查工作申报的系统误差和未及时上户与未及时销户。建议贵州省的普查工作还应在信息采集、教育宣传、实施方式等方面加以改进和提高。
[Abstract]:The quality of census data is a prerequisite for population analysis and research and a credible guarantee for the findings of the study. For censuses, age structure data are the most basic census data. The quality of age data has a great impact on all population indicators, and the evaluation of age data quality before the analysis of census data is the key. This paper examines the age data of the sixth census and the fifth census of Guizhou Province, and probes into the quality of the age data of the census in Guizhou Province. Population cohort comparison method, age orientation preference test and international general index method are used to test the quality of the age data of the sixth census and the fifth census of Guizhou province. The age data of the 6th, 5th and 4th censuses of Guizhou Province were compared longitudinally. The results of age data test showed that the age data of the sixth population census of Guizhou Province were of good quality, only the underreported phenomenon appeared in the low age group, there was no obvious age direction preference, and the consistency was good, and the quality of the age data of Wupu was poor. There were age preference behavior ending in 0 and 8, population underreporting, female underreporting more than male. Guizhou minority also has age accumulation, the influence is obviously higher than the Han nationality. Comparing with the quality of the age data of Liupu and Wupu, it is revealed that the quality of the census age data in Guizhou Province is improving continuously. The age data of the sixth census of Guizhou Province are better than those of Guangxi and Shanghai, which is obviously better than that of the whole country. Finally, the paper summarizes the five main causes of data error: population flow and population migration, underreporting of birth population, error of ethnic minority declaration, systematic error of census declaration, and failure to go to the household in time and not to cancel the household in time. It is suggested that the census work in Guizhou Province should be improved in the aspects of information collection, education and propaganda, implementation methods, etc.
【学位授予单位】：贵州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】