城镇化对中国城乡人口老龄化影响的量化分析

发布时间：2018-07-13 07:27

【摘要】：文章综合考量生育、死亡、期初年龄结构和人口乡—城转移4个方面的因素,对2000~2010年中国城乡人口老龄化的影响因素进行分解分析。结果显示,城镇化是城乡人口老龄化的重要影响因素,其影响力的大小与乡—城转移人口的年龄选择模式密切相关。该阶段,15~29岁的年轻乡村人口有1/3转为城镇人口;人口的乡—城转移对乡村人口老龄化的贡献率为43.4%,高于任何人口自然变动因素的影响,是乡村人口老龄化的主导因素;乡—城转移人口有效降低了城市老龄人口比重,对城市人口老龄化的贡献率为-118.0%,仅次于期初年龄结构的影响力;城镇化对镇人口老龄化的影响较为有限。在人口自然变动诸因素中,期初年龄结构对城乡人口老龄化的影响远高于死亡率与生育率变动的影响。文章讨论了城镇化对城乡人口老龄化影响差异的成因及其发展趋势,并就这种差异的社会经济影响提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Considering the factors of fertility, death, age structure at the beginning of the period and the migration of population from rural to urban areas, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the aging of Chinese urban and rural population from 2000 to 2010. The results show that urbanization is an important factor affecting the aging of urban and rural population. At this stage, a third of the young rural population aged 1529 years turned into urban population, and the contribution rate of rural-urban migration to the aging of rural population was 43.4, which was higher than that of any natural population change factor, and was the dominant factor of rural population aging. The rural-urban migration population effectively reduces the proportion of urban aging population, and the contribution rate to urban population aging is -118.0, second only to the influence of age structure at the beginning of the period, and the impact of urbanization on the aging of the town population is relatively limited. Among the factors of natural population change, the effect of age structure on the aging of urban and rural population is much higher than that of mortality and fertility. This paper discusses the causes and development trend of the difference in the influence of urbanization on the aging of urban and rural population, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the social and economic impact of this difference.
【作者单位】：复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金一般项目(编号:11YJCZH260)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F299.21;C924.21

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