基于Leslie模型的北京市基础教育学龄人口分城乡预测
发布时间：2018-07-13 14:54
【摘要】：以2010年第六次人口普查数据为基点,考虑到已经开放的单独二胎政策以及全面放开的二胎政策等因素,对北京市2020—2030年基础教育学龄人口变动情况分城乡进行预测.研究发现:北京学龄人口总体上呈现先上升后下降趋势;城市学龄人口远远高于农村学龄人口;城市各个阶段学龄人口均出现了先升后降趋势;农村幼儿园学龄人口呈现快速下降趋势,小学、初中学龄人口均呈现了先升后降趋势,农村高中学龄人口呈现了"下降-上升-下降-上升"的反复波动.学龄人口的变化反映了未来教育需求的变动,在未来10-15年,北京市还需要加大教师队伍建设、加强基础设施建设,努力实现城乡教育资源均衡化,最大限度地实现教育公平.
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the sixth census in 2010, taking into account the factors such as the single child policy that has been opened and the second child policy that has been fully liberalized, this paper forecasts the change of the basic education school-age population in Beijing by urban and rural areas in 2020-2030. The results show that the school-age population in Beijing increases first and then decreases, the urban school-age population is far higher than the rural school-age population, and the school-age population in every stage of the city has the tendency of rising first and then decreasing; The preschool population in rural areas showed a rapid downward trend. In primary and junior middle schools, the school-age population increased first and then decreased, and the rural senior school-age population showed the repeated fluctuation of "down-rise-rising". The change of school-age population reflects the change of educational demand in the future. In the next 10-15 years, Beijing also needs to strengthen the construction of teachers, strengthen the construction of infrastructure, make great efforts to realize the equalization of urban and rural educational resources, and realize the education equity to the maximum extent.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学信息学院;
【基金】：北京教育科学规划重点课题“2020-2030年基础教育学龄人口变化预测研究”(AAA13003) 首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新项目
【分类号】：C924.2
本文编号：2119775
[Abstract]:Based on the data of the sixth census in 2010, taking into account the factors such as the single child policy that has been opened and the second child policy that has been fully liberalized, this paper forecasts the change of the basic education school-age population in Beijing by urban and rural areas in 2020-2030. The results show that the school-age population in Beijing increases first and then decreases, the urban school-age population is far higher than the rural school-age population, and the school-age population in every stage of the city has the tendency of rising first and then decreasing; The preschool population in rural areas showed a rapid downward trend. In primary and junior middle schools, the school-age population increased first and then decreased, and the rural senior school-age population showed the repeated fluctuation of "down-rise-rising". The change of school-age population reflects the change of educational demand in the future. In the next 10-15 years, Beijing also needs to strengthen the construction of teachers, strengthen the construction of infrastructure, make great efforts to realize the equalization of urban and rural educational resources, and realize the education equity to the maximum extent.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学信息学院;
【基金】：北京教育科学规划重点课题“2020-2030年基础教育学龄人口变化预测研究”(AAA13003) 首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新项目
【分类号】：C924.2
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前5条
1 林霁峰;;广西各类教育学龄人口变动预测分析[J];广西社会科学;2011年11期
2 刘家强;罗蓉;;学龄人口发展与人力资本提升——基于四川省2005~2020年学龄人口发展的分析[J];人口研究;2006年04期
3 袁桂林;宗晓华;陈静漪;;中国分城乡学龄人口变动趋势分析[J];教育科学;2006年01期
4 周洪;;学龄人口变化对教师发展规模的影响——基于2020年前四川义务教育阶段学龄人口的分析[J];重庆三峡学院学报;2013年01期
5 ;[J];;年期
相关重要报纸文章 前1条
1 汪明;学龄人口波动教育如何应对[N];中国教育报;2013年
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 王漪梦;上海学龄前及义务教育学龄人口变动及其教育资源的合理配置研究[D];华东师范大学;2013年
2 赵红霞;乌鲁木齐市学龄人口变动与基础教育发展研究[D];新疆大学;2013年
，本文编号：2119775
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/shekelunwen/renkou/2119775.html
最近更新
教材专著
