孩次、生育时间与生育水平——基于中日韩妇女平均生育年龄变动与差异的机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 12:11

【摘要】：文章描述1990~2015年间中日韩三国妇女平均生育年龄的变化特征,揭示孩次结构和分孩次生育时间对平均生育年龄指标的影响,分析三国内部及国家间妇女平均生育年龄时期变化与国别差异的影响机制。研究发现,观察期间中国妇女的平均生育年龄先下降后上升;平均生育年龄的提高是孩次减少与生育推迟共同作用的结果,后者的影响极为显著,但21世纪近5年的内在机制表现值得关注。与日韩相比,中国妇女总体及分孩次的平均生育年龄都相对偏低;三国妇女的平均生育年龄上升态势后的内在机制存在差异。文章还就平均生育年龄指标在衡量生育时间的准确性问题,以及全面两孩政策背景下生育时间在提升生育水平方面的政策意义进行讨论。
[Abstract]:This paper describes the changing characteristics of the average childbearing age of Chinese, Japanese and Korean women from 1990 to 2015, and reveals the influence of the structure of children and the time of childbearing per child on the average reproductive age. To analyze the influence mechanism of the change of average childbearing age and the difference between countries in the three countries. The study found that the average childbearing age of Chinese women first decreased and then increased during the observation period, and the increase of the mean childbearing age was the result of the combined effect of the decrease in the number of children and the delay of childbearing, and the effect of the latter was extremely significant. However, the performance of the internal mechanism in the last five years of the 21 st century is worthy of attention. Compared with Japan and South Korea, the average childbearing age of Chinese women is relatively low, and the internal mechanism of the rise of average childbearing age of women in the three countries is different. The paper also discusses the accuracy of the average reproductive age in the measurement of reproductive time, and the policy significance of reproductive time in raising fertility level under the background of comprehensive two-child policy.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;中国人民大学社会与人口学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目《中国家庭转变研究》(16JJD840013)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：C921

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