中国人口老龄化对经常项目的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-05 20:40

【摘要】：目前，世界经济的发展受到了来自经常项目失衡的威胁，同时有关学者们也开始质疑经常项目失衡这一问题的可持续性。因此有必要探讨是哪些因素对经常项目差额的变动产生了影响。在现实中，不同时期一国或地区的人口年龄结构会有所不同，同样在同一时期不同国家或地区的人口年龄结构也会存在差异，由于储蓄和投资行为会因不同的人口年龄结构而不同，而经常项目又会受到储蓄和投资的影响，所以经常项目的变动必然受到人口年龄结构（包括人口老龄化）变动的影响。因此本文从这一新的角度出发，分析影响经常项目的另一个因素人口老龄化。文章在对国内外有关人口年龄结构与经常项目的研究文献进行回顾的基础上，首先对一些重要概念进行了界定，，回顾了人口转变理论和生命周期假说，从人口年龄结构角度分析了人口老龄化对经常项目的影响机制，其中先简要分析了人口年龄结构影响经常项目传导机制的三阶段说，再主要从国民收入恒等式角度出发，研究了人口年龄结构影响经常项目的传导机制，分析发现人口老龄化会从储蓄、投资、消费、政府收支和出口这些方面对经常项目产生影响。文章还对我国人口老龄化与经常项目的发展历程和未来发展趋势进行了阐述，归纳分析人口老龄化对经常项目可能产生的影响。在此基础上建立了计量模型，并用我国30个省份2000-2010年的面板数据进行实证检验。在变量的选取中除了反映人口老龄化的指标抚养比外，本文还加入了一系列影响经常项目的因素作为控制变量。本文通过固定效应冗余检验和Hausman检验发现应采用固定效应对模型进行估计，实证结果显示，老年抚养比与经常项目差额占GDP的比重之间存在着负相关关系。本文还选取老年抚养比滞后两期的变量进行回归，对老年抚养比的内生性进行了检验。最后，在研究的基础上得出一些启示，认为如果我们利用目前的经常项目盈余、充足的资本进行跨国投资，从而使得资本利得增加，这将对于应对日益严重的人口老龄化有重要的战略意义。而我国经常项目顺差的趋势将随着人口老龄化的加剧逐渐减弱，从而对人口政策、我国面临的人民币升值问题有一定的参考意义。
[Abstract]:At present, the development of the world economy is threatened by the current account imbalance, and scholars have begun to question the sustainability of the current account imbalance. It is therefore necessary to explore the factors that have influenced the movement of current account balances. In reality, the age structure of the population of a country or region will vary from time to time, and there will also be differences in the age structure of the population in different countries or regions during the same period. Because the behavior of saving and investment will be different according to different age structure of population, and the current account will be influenced by saving and investment, the change of current account will inevitably be influenced by the change of population age structure (including population aging). Therefore, from this new perspective, this paper analyzes another factor affecting the current account population aging. On the basis of reviewing the research literature on population age structure and current items at home and abroad, this paper first defines some important concepts, reviews the theory of population transition and the hypothesis of life cycle. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population aging on current account from the point of view of population age structure. Firstly, it briefly analyzes the three stages of the transmission mechanism of population age structure affecting current account, and then mainly from the perspective of identity of national income. This paper studies the transmission mechanism of the age structure of the population affecting the current account, and finds that the aging of the population will have an impact on the current account from the aspects of savings, investment, consumption, government income and expenditure and exports. The paper also expounds the development course and future development trend of population aging and current items in China, and summarizes and analyzes the possible impact of population aging on current items. On this basis, the econometric model is established and tested with panel data from 2000 to 2010 in 30 provinces of China. In addition to the dependency ratio which reflects the aging of the population, a series of factors affecting the current account are added as control variables in the selection of variables. Through the fixed effect redundancy test and Hausman test, we find that the fixed effect should be used to estimate the model. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of current account difference to GDP. This article also selects the old age dependency ratio two lag variables to carry on the regression, has carried on the test to the old age dependency ratio endogeneity. Finally, on the basis of the research, we draw some conclusions that if we use the current account surplus, sufficient capital for transnational investment, so that capital gains increase, This will have important strategic significance to deal with the increasing population aging. However, the trend of China's current account surplus will weaken gradually with the aggravation of population aging, which has certain reference significance to the population policy and the appreciation of RMB in our country.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.24

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