上海市人口—经济—环境系统耦合协调度研究

发布时间：2018-08-07 08:40

【摘要】：随着上海市社会经济的发展,2015年,上海全市生产总值完成25123.45亿元,按可比价格计算比上年增长6.6%。上海市作为中国的经济金融中心,经济持续保持平稳增长,但经济增长的背后与持续增长的人口规模有着相互关联关系,甚至有可能会对环境造成一些影响。为了了解上海市人口、经济和环境之间的发展状况,我们有必要对上海市的人口、经济和环境相互之间协调关系进行认真的探索。本文的写作框架从研究对上海市人口-经济-环境耦合协调性的背景意义开始,总结了目前国内外关于人口-经济-环境耦合协调度发展的一系列相关研究,继而对人口、经济、环境相互之间协调发展的机制做了研究,接着对系统耦合协调度模型的计算做了阐述,同时介绍了一种改进的方法,最后对上海市的人口-经济-环境系统协调性进行实证研究,分析目前上海市人口-经济-环境系统的发展水平以及提出一些合理化建议。本文通过收集上海市2000~2015年人口、经济和环境相关数据进行探究,在以往学者们提出的熵值法-系统耦合模型的基础上,指出了原有评价方法在某些方面评价的不足,同时提出了系统均衡发展度这一概念,对原有评价方法进行了改进。采用熵值法-系统耦合模型对系统协调度进行计算在两种特殊情况下的表现并不是很理想:一是在n个子系统中,当至少有一个子系统综合效益为零时会导致至少(n 12 1--)个复合系统协调度为零,于是会出现复合系统综合效益相对较高而协调度却为零的情况;二是当各子系统综合效益相近且数值都非常小的情况下,会造成协调度非常高,尽管利用耦合发展度对耦合协调度做了修正来替代系统的协调度,但依然具有较高的协调度。基于此,本文定义了一个的全新的变量——系统均衡发展度,并尝试用改进后的方法计算该变量,从而对复合系统的协调度和综合效益做均衡的评价。对上海市2000~2015年的人口-经济-环境系统协调度的分析发现:上海市的人口子系统综合效益并没有多大改变,环境子系统在增长的过程中具有波动性,表现最好的是经济子系统,呈稳步上升趋势;各个二元复合系统耦合发展度总体处于正常水平,2000~2011年人口-经济与经济-环境两个二元系统增长趋势具有相似性,而从2011~2015年人口-环境与经济-环境两个二元系统都出现先下降后上升的趋势,人口-经济二元系统则持续稳步增长,原因出现在2012年环境子系统综合效益相比上一年有所下降,从而影响其相关联的两个二元复合系统;对整个人口-经济-环境系统各个评价指标来看,三元系统的综合效益、耦合发展度和均衡发展度发展趋势具有相似性,且均衡发展度处于综合效益和耦合发展度之间,相比于综合效益和耦合发展度表现更加稳健,从三个评价指标发展水平的走势来看,可以预测2016~2017年上海市的人口-经济-环境将保持着一种稳健的态势发展。
[Abstract]:With the development of Shanghai's social and economic development, in 2015, the total city of Shanghai completed 2 trillion and 512 billion 345 million yuan. According to the comparable price, it increased 6.6%. Shanghai as the economic and financial center of China. The economy continued to grow steadily. However, there was a relationship between the economic growth and the sustained growth of the population, even possible. In order to understand the development of the population, economy and environment in Shanghai, it is necessary for us to make a careful exploration of the coordination relationship between population, economy and environment in Shanghai. The writing framework of this paper begins with the background of the research on the coupling coordination of the population economy environment in Shanghai. A series of related studies on the development of population economic environment coupling coordination at home and abroad are studied. Then, the mechanism of coordinated development between population, economy and environment is studied. Then, the calculation of the system coupling coordination degree model is expounded. At the same time, an improved method is introduced. Finally, the population economy ring of Shanghai city is introduced. In this paper, the development level of the population economic environment system in Shanghai and some rationalization proposals are analyzed. The data of the population, the economic and the environment related to the 2000~2015 year in Shanghai are explored. On the basis of the entropy value method system coupling model proposed by the scholars in the past, this paper points out the original. There is a shortage of evaluation methods in some aspects. At the same time, the concept of system equilibrium development is proposed, and the original evaluation method is improved. The performance of system coordination with entropy value method and system coupling model is not ideal in two special situations: one is at least one subsystem in the N subsystem. When the integrated benefit is zero, the coordination degree of the composite system at least (n 12 1--) is zero, so the composite system has a relatively high comprehensive benefit and a zero coordination degree, and the two is that the coordination degree is very high when the comprehensive benefits of each subsystem are close and the value is very small, although coupling development is used for coupling. The coordination degree is revised to replace the coordination degree of the system, but it still has high coordination degree. Based on this, this paper defines a new variable of system equilibrium development degree, and tries to calculate the variable with the improved method, so that the coordination degree and comprehensive benefit of the composite system are evaluated in a balanced way. In the year of 2000~2015, Shanghai City The analysis of the coordination degree of the population economic environment system found that the comprehensive benefit of the human mouth system in Shanghai has not changed much. The environment subsystem has the volatility in the process of growth, the best performance is the economic subsystem, and the development of the two yuan composite system is in the normal level, 2000~2011 years. The growth trend of the two two yuan system of population economic and economic environment is similar, while the two two yuan system of population, environment and economy and environment in 2011~2015 year has the trend of first descending and then rising. The population economic two yuan system continues to grow steadily. The reason is that the comprehensive benefit of the environment subsystem in 2012 has been lower than that of the last year. As a result, the two two composite systems associated with them are affected, and the overall benefit of the three yuan system, the coupling development degree and the balanced development trend are similar to the whole population economic environment system, and the equilibrium development degree is between the comprehensive benefit and the coupling development degree, compared with the comprehensive benefit and coupling development. The performance is more robust. From the trend of the development level of the three evaluation indicators, it is possible to predict that the population economy environment of Shanghai will maintain a steady state of development in 2016~2017.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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