黑龙江省人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响

发布时间：2018-08-25 19:43

【摘要】：改革开放以来,黑龙江省经济发展迅速,社会财富和居民生活水平得到了快速的提高。同时也存在着诸多问题,其中之一就是居民消费占GDP的比重始终较低,而且还呈现出不断下滑的趋势。Modigliani和Brumberg(1954)的生命周期理论认为人口年龄结构变动会对居民消费产生重要的影响。本论文根据这一思想,试图从人口年龄结构变动的视角分析居民消费率变动问题。研究人口年龄结构对居民消费的影响,使我们从宏观的角度更为准确地预测人口老龄化对黑龙江省未来消费的影响,以及对整个省的国民经济的影响。论文首先分析了黑龙江省历年居民消费水平变动,其次分了三个章节分析了黑龙江省人口年龄结构变动及其对其居民消费水平的影响。从人口年龄结构看,黑龙江省人口自然增长率保持低速稳定状态,0-14岁少儿人口数量不断减少,但是减少幅度趋缓,15-64岁青壮年人口呈现稳定增长的趋势,但是受到少儿人口数不断减少的影响,未来15-64岁青壮年人口增长空间有限,65岁以上老年人口继续保持稳定增长,因此,论文认为黑龙江省的人口年龄结构显示出黑龙江省已经进入老龄人口社会。从居民消费水平看,黑龙江省居民消费水平从绝对数上讲呈现出不断扩大的趋势,但是从黑龙江省居民消费率看呈现出在波动中不断降低的趋势。这说明黑龙江省居民消费水平的变动赶不上GDP的增长,居民消费需求不足。从人口年龄结构变动对黑龙江省居民消费水平的影响上看,人口自然增长率变动对居民消费水平的影响较小,人口自然增长率每提高1%仅可以带动0.021%的居民消费水平增加；而适龄劳动人口变动对居民消费水平的影响是反向的,适龄劳动人口每增加1%会引起居民消费水平降低0.839%；人口老龄化也会引起居民消费水平反向变动,即人口老龄化提高1%会引起居民消费水平降低0.126%。从这个角度看,随着黑龙江省少儿人口数量不断减低,人口老龄化不断提高,适龄劳动人口不断增加,未来黑龙江省居民实际消费水平在数量上会不断增加,但是居民消费率会继续降低。结合黑龙江省人口年龄结构变动的趋势和居民消费水平变动的特点,论文认为黑龙江省人口年龄结构变动不利于黑龙江省提高居民消费水平,不利于黑龙江省扩大内需,尤其是消费需求。为此,黑龙江省必须进行一些政策措施以最大限度的缓解人口年龄结构变动对其居民消费水平提高带来的不利影响。论文建议从完善社会保障制度、大力增加居民收入、转变居民消费观念、大力改善消费环境等几个方面促进黑龙江省居民消费水平不断提高。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the economic development of Heilongjiang Province has been rapid, social wealth and living standards have been improved rapidly. At the same time, there are also many problems, one of which is that the proportion of household consumption in GDP is always low, but also presents a downward trend. Modigliani and Brumberg (1954) life cycle theory holds that population Based on this idea, this paper tries to analyze the change of the consumption rate from the perspective of the change of the age structure of population, and to study the influence of the age structure of population on the consumption of residents, so that we can more accurately predict the future disappearance of Heilongjiang Province from a macroscopic point of view. The impact of fees and the impact on the whole province's national economy.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the change of consumption level of Heilongjiang province in the past years, and then divides into three chapters to analyze the change of population age structure and its influence on consumption level of Heilongjiang province. The population of young adults aged 15-64 shows a steady growth trend, but due to the decrease of the number of children, the future population growth space of young adults aged 15-64 is limited, and the population over 65 years old will continue to maintain a stable growth. Therefore, the paper considers that the population age structure of Heilongjiang Province shows that Heilongjiang Province has already. From the perspective of consumption level of residents, the consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province shows a trend of increasing in absolute numbers, but from the perspective of consumption rate of residents in Heilongjiang Province shows a trend of decreasing in fluctuation. This shows that the change of consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province can not keep up with the growth of GDP and the consumption demand of residents. From the point of view of the influence of the change of population age structure on the consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province, the change of population natural growth rate has little influence on the consumption level of residents, and each increase of population natural growth rate can only lead to the increase of 0.021% of the consumption level of residents; while the change of working-age population has a reverse effect on the consumption level of residents. Every 1% increase in the working-age population will result in a 0.839% decrease in the consumption level of residents, and an aging population will also cause a reverse change in the consumption level of residents, i.e. an increase of 1% in the aging population will lead to a decrease of 0.126% in the consumption level of residents. With the increasing labor force, the real consumption level of residents in Heilongjiang Province will continue to increase in quantity in the future, but the consumption rate of residents will continue to decline.
Considering the changing trend of population age structure and the changing characteristics of residents'consumption level in Heilongjiang Province, the paper holds that the change of population age structure in Heilongjiang Province is not conducive to the improvement of residents' consumption level in Heilongjiang Province, and is not conducive to the expansion of domestic demand, especially consumption demand in Heilongjiang Province. The paper suggests improving the social security system, increasing the income of residents, changing the concept of residents'consumption, and improving the consumption environment to promote the continuous improvement of residents' consumption level in Heilongjiang Province.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05;F126.1;F224

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