人口流动与重庆经济增长极的形成和发展研究
发布时间：2018-09-18 12:42
【摘要】： 2007年3月8日,胡锦涛总书记在参加十届全国人大五次会议重庆代表团审议时,为重庆工作“定向导航”,高瞻远瞩地作出了三大定位,即努力把重庆加快建设成为西部地区的重要增长极、长江上游地区的经济中心、城乡统筹发展的直辖市。本文结合将重庆建设成为重要增长极的战略决策,研究在此背景下人口流动的历史、现状和趋势,以及人口流动对经济增长极的促进作用。 人口迁移是人口学研究的对象,人口流动则是中国特有的户籍制度放宽限制后出现的特殊现象。自中国推行渐进式改革以来,人口流动成为一种发展现象,在短短30年间,从受到制度性抑制到获得政策认同,逐渐成为社会常态,对其进行研究有着重要的现实意义和理论意义。在改革开放早期,我国都是以刘易斯式的劳动力无限供给的二元经济,直到2004年珠江三角洲地区出现“民工荒”、“技工荒”现象,“一个从劳动力无限供给到劳动力有限剩余的转变正在发生”。人口流动浪潮也从上世纪九十年代的单向流动逐步转变为双向流动,在国家实施西部大开发后,回流成为新世纪的又一社会景观。 经过30年的发展,珠三角、长三角、环渤海地区已经成为东部地区三个重要经济增长极。在国家不断布局“改革试验区”的背景下,重庆被要求发展为西部重要经济增长极,加之农村劳动力“有限剩余”,如何引导人口流动促进重庆经济增长极尽快形成和可持续发展,是决策者面临的一个重要难题。 目前,将人口流动的一般规律和重庆经济社会的特殊性在理论上结合起来研究的文献较少,更缺乏对人口流动转折点、人口流动与重庆经济发展阶段的关系以及反映人口流动趋势性特征的研究。人口流动、经济增长极是人口学、管理学、社会学和经济学研究的范畴,而学界目前在某种程度上还存在着“不同学科之间还不能进行有效对话,不同学科对人口流动问题的研究还处于自说自话的状态,妨碍了研究的深入”的情况。本文试图运用这些学科的结合点,将人口流动作为重庆经济发展的基本红线来把握,防止对人口流动的研究游离于经济发展和社会发展之外,既从宏观角度发表见解,也从微观角度进行细心考察和小心求证,防止出现研究的“空心化”。将人口流动这种重大的发展现象融合于重庆的经济发展之中,从逻辑和历史的视角出发,通过定量和定性分析重庆经济增长极形成的历史积淀和现实动力。在我国经济发展的新阶段,重庆要再现当年东部的人口流入现象已不可能,主要原因有：一是重庆不可能拥有改革开放初期东部地区得天独厚的政策优势；二是重庆城镇居民收入与全国城乡居民收入差距不可能有当初东部地区与全国的差距那么大,不能形成收入差距的“势能”；三是经过30年的改革发展,与人口流动相关的制度正在经历一个新的转折点,户籍制度还没有完全放开,全国区域、城乡一体的社会保障制度还没有完全建立起来,这些制度变革正处于孕育之中。 事实上,重庆的人口流动在开埠后就已出现,在抗战时期,省际间的人口流动在当时来说规模和范围也是最大的,只是城乡人口流动规模较小。大规模的农村劳动力向城市流动,始于20世纪80年代后期,即农村一次性改革效应释放完成,城乡收入差距再次拉大时。进入新世纪,城乡间和区县间的人口流动呈加速趋势,但农村劳动力外出寻找非农就业时,由于政府公共治理模式及相关制度建设的滞后,还不能实现农民身份向市民身份的转变,在一定程度阻碍了人口的城乡流动。那么重庆如何在现有约束条件下成为西部重要经济增长极呢? 本文提出了重庆在经济增长极形成进程中,户籍制度和社会保障制度是涉及城乡关系的重要制度,是人口流动和农民工市民化的核心制度,也是政府治理的重要内容。另外,本文还提出了在现阶段重庆要成为西部重要经济增长极,需要提高流动人口质量和优化流动人口结构,统筹国内外两个劳动力市场,加大高素质人才流入,把人口资源存量转变为人力资本优势,并引导经济腹地的劳动力资源流入。 本文的结构和各部分要点如下： 首先,在绪论中主要阐明了研究背景、主要目的、意义、研究方法,以及研究的数据来源和本文的结构安排。将人口流动与经济增长极结合起来研究是重庆未来一个时期发展的重大经济社会问题,有利于在建设经济增长极的进程中把握好公共政策的决策及推进经济改革和社会制度变革的时机、目标模式及操作步骤。 其次,综述了人口流动及经济增长极理论研究文献。主要介绍了人口流动的理论及类型,国内外劳动力迁移理论的演进及国际上相关最新研究成果,国内外对经济增长极理论以及将二者结合进行研究的理论成果,给出了本文对经济增长极的界定。前人研究成果在某种程度上为本文的研究主题提供了理论支持。 第三,阐明了人口流动与经济增长极的关系。主要介绍了人口流动与经济增长极的互动关系和辨证关系。分析了人口流动对经济增长极形成和发展的重要作用。同时,进一步从理论上说明人口流动与经济增长极形成的相互作用机理。 第四,阐明了人口流动与近现代重庆经济发展。主要介绍了人口流动与重庆近代经济发展,人口流动与重庆开埠时期经济发展,人口与辛亥革命至抗战时期重庆经济发展,抗战时期重庆的人口状况,抗战时期重庆的经济发展状况。指出了战争形态也是影响人口流动的重要因素以及流动人口质量对抗战时期重庆经济发展的重要推动作用。从历史的视角分析了重庆人口流动与经济发展相互演进的过程。 第五,阐明了人口流动与当代重庆经济发展的关系。主要介绍了三线建设对重庆经济发展的重要提升作用,三峡工程重庆库区的人口迁移。当代重庆人口流动的特征,流入人口和流出人口的人口学特征,农村劳动力流动的影响因素。重点从产业结构、所有制结构、城镇化程度进行分析；流动人口结构对经济增长的影响分析,流动人口质量对经济增长的影响分析,人口流动对经济增长的效应分析,人口流动与产业结构升级的相关性分析,人口流动与重庆经济发展的灰色关联度分析。指出了人口大进大出对经济增长的影响更大以及流动人口质量对经济增长的重要推动作用。在当前重庆人口流出还大于人口流入的情况下,整体人口流动对经济增长的正面效应大于单纯的人口流入对经济增长的影响。 第六,阐明了经济增长极形成与发展中的人口流动。从经济增长极的构成要素,经济增长极的两个效应,打造经济增长极的必需条件；增长极形成的评价指标体系进行分析。重庆产业增长极、城市增长极,区域增长极三个层面运用因子分析法和主成分分析法进行评价分析；增长极理论中的人口流动研究,其中主要分析了经济增长区域人口流动的变化与调整,人口流动与经济增长极的形成,经济增长极效应下的人口流动,特别是极化效应和扩散效应下的人口流动及人口流动对重庆经济增长的极化效应。指出重庆在建设经济增长极的进程中以人口流入推动增长极的形成更重要,不以本市劳动力转移为单一目标,而是应以经济腹地人口流入和拓宽国际视野来引导人口流动推动经济增长极形成。 第七,提炼了研究的主要结论和政策建议。主要依据前面几部分分析的具体情况,提炼出研究的主要结论,并提出相应的政策建议,以及今后需要进一步研究的问题。指出流动人口质量和结构是经济增长极形成和发展的重要因素,重庆开埠、战时陪都、三线建设是重庆经济增长极形成的历史机遇期,直辖是经济增长极形成的现实动力。吸纳国内外高素质人才、提高流动人口质量、提升人力资本、促进农民工市民化、加强流动人口的统计监测、提高对流动人口的服务水平、改革政府的公共治理模式是今后重庆建设西部重要经济增长极亟需重视的问题。 本文在以下几个方面有些新意： 1.将人口流动与经济增长极结合起来研究,并深入分析人口流动的规律性与经济增长极特征的关系。 2.从重庆人口流动与经济增长的历史视角分析人口流动在经济发展进程中所起的作用以及经济增长极形成的历史积淀。 3.分析了人口流动与经济结构、产业结构、就业结构以及流动人口结构、流动人口质量对经济增长的相互影响的效应。 4.建立评价经济增长极的指标体系,以及分析了在经济增长极极化效应和扩散效应下的人口流动问题。 本文的不足之处是缺乏用人口流动的更细分化的时间序列数据来建立模型对经济增长、工业化进程相互关系进行准确的刻画,对一些政策的临界点和制度改革的时机难以准确量化。
[Abstract]:On March 8, 2007, when attending the deliberations of the Chongqing delegation at the Fifth Session of the Tenth National People's Congress, General Secretary Hu Jintao made three major positioning for the "directional navigation" of Chongqing's work, that is, to speed up the construction of Chongqing as an important growth pole in the western region, an economic center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and a direct jurisdiction for the overall development of urban and rural areas. Based on the strategic decision to build Chongqing into an important growth pole, this paper studies the history, current situation and trend of population mobility in this context, and the role of population mobility in promoting economic growth pole.
Population migration is the object of demography research, and population mobility is a special phenomenon after the relaxation of the census register system. Since the gradual reform in China, population migration has become a development phenomenon. The study has important practical and theoretical significance.In the early period of reform and opening up, China was a dual economy with unlimited labor supply of Lewis-style.Until 2004, there was a "shortage of migrant workers" and "shortage of skilled workers" in the Pearl River Delta region. The tide of population migration has gradually changed from one-way flow in the 1990s to two-way flow. After the implementation of the western development, the return flow has become another social landscape in the new century.
After 30 years of development, the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Rim have become three important economic growth poles in the eastern region. Under the background of the continuous layout of the "reform pilot area", Chongqing has been required to develop into an important economic growth pole in the western region. In addition, the rural labor force "limited surplus", how to guide the flow of population to promote Chongqing's economy The formation and sustainable development of growth pole is an important problem for policy makers.
At present, there are few papers which combine the general law of population flow with the particularity of Chongqing's economy and society in theory, and there is even less research on the turning point of population flow, the relationship between population flow and the economic development stage of Chongqing, and the characteristics reflecting the trend of population flow. The scope of sociological and economic research, and to some extent, there is still a "different disciplines can not be effective dialogue between different disciplines, different disciplines on the study of population mobility is still in a state of self-talk, hindering the in-depth study." This paper attempts to use the combination of these disciplines, the flow of population. As the basic red line of Chongqing's economic development, to prevent the study of population flow from dissociating from economic development and social development, not only from the macro point of view, but also from the micro point of view to carefully investigate and carefully verify, so as to prevent the emergence of "hollowing" of the study, and to integrate this major development phenomenon of population flow into Chongqing. In the course of economic development, from a logical and historical point of view, this paper makes a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the historical accumulation and realistic motive force of Chongqing's economic growth pole. The eastern region has unique policy advantages; the second is that the income gap between urban and rural residents in Chongqing and the whole country can not be as big as the gap between the eastern region and the whole country, and can not form the "potential energy" of the income gap; the third is that after 30 years of reform and development, the system related to population mobility is undergoing a new turning point. Point, the household registration system has not been completely liberalized, the national regional, urban and rural integration of social security system has not yet been fully established, these system changes are in the breeding.
In fact, the population flow in Chongqing has appeared since the opening of the port. During the War of Resistance Against Japan, the inter-provincial population flow was the largest in scale and scope at that time, but the scale of urban-rural population flow was small. In the new century, the population flow between urban and rural areas and between districts and counties is accelerating. However, when the rural labor force goes out to seek non-agricultural employment, due to the lag of the government's public governance model and related system construction, it can not realize the transformation of peasants'identity to citizenship, which hinders the population's urban and rural areas to a certain extent. How can Chongqing become an important economic growth pole in the West under the existing constraints?
In the process of forming Chongqing's economic growth pole, the household registration system and social security system are important systems involving the relationship between urban and rural areas, the core system of population migration and the citizenization of peasant workers, and the important content of government governance. Improving the quality of floating population and optimizing the structure of floating population, coordinating the two labor markets at home and abroad, increasing the inflow of high-quality talents, transforming the stock of population resources into the advantages of human capital, and guiding the inflow of labor resources into the economic hinterland.
The structure and main points of this article are as follows:
First of all, the introduction mainly expounds the research background, the main purpose, the significance, the research methods, the data sources and the structure of this paper. Decision-making of public policies and the timing, target models and operational procedures for promoting economic and social system reforms.
Secondly, the paper summarizes the literature on the theory of population flow and economic growth pole, mainly introduces the theory and types of population flow, the evolution of labor migration theory at home and abroad and the latest research results in the world, the theory of economic growth pole at home and abroad and the theoretical results of combining the two theories, and gives the economic growth of this paper. The results of previous studies provide some theoretical support for this research topic.
Thirdly, it clarifies the relationship between population flow and economic growth pole, mainly introduces the interaction and dialectical relationship between population flow and economic growth pole, and analyzes the important role of population flow in the formation and development of economic growth pole.
Fourthly, the paper expounds the population flow and the economic development of Chongqing in modern times.It mainly introduces the population flow and the economic development of Chongqing in modern times, the population flow and the economic development of Chongqing in the period of opening a port, the population and the economic development of Chongqing from the 1911 Revolution to the Anti-Japanese War, the population situation of Chongqing in the period of Anti-Japanese War, and the economic development of Chongqing in the period of Anti-Japanese The form of war is also an important factor affecting the flow of population and the quality of floating population plays an important role in promoting the economic development of Chongqing during the Anti-Japanese War.
Fifthly, this paper expounds the relationship between population flow and the economic development of contemporary Chongqing. It mainly introduces the important role of the third-line construction in promoting the economic development of Chongqing, the migration of population in the Three Gorges Project in Chongqing reservoir area. From the industrial structure, ownership structure, the degree of urbanization analysis; floating population structure on economic growth impact analysis, floating population quality on economic growth impact analysis, population flow on economic growth effect analysis, population flow and industrial structure upgrade correlation analysis, population flow and economic development in Chongqing grey It is pointed out that the population inflow and outflow have greater impact on economic growth and the quality of floating population plays an important role in promoting economic growth.
Sixthly, it clarifies the population flow in the process of forming and developing the economic growth pole. It analyzes the necessary conditions for building the economic growth pole from the composition factors of the economic growth pole and the two effects of the economic growth pole. It also analyzes the evaluation index system of the formation of the growth pole. Analytical method and principal component analysis method are used to evaluate and analyze the population flow in the growth pole theory, which mainly analyzes the change and adjustment of population flow in the economic growth region, the formation of population flow and economic growth pole, the population flow under the economic growth pole effect, especially the population flow and people under the polarization effect and diffusion effect. The polarization effect of population flow on Chongqing's economic growth is pointed out. It is more important for Chongqing to promote the formation of growth pole by population inflow in the process of building economic growth pole. The formation of growth pole should be guided by population inflow in economic hinterland and broadening international horizon rather than the transfer of labor force in Chongqing.
Seventh, the main conclusions and policy recommendations of the study are refined. The main conclusions of the study are drawn based on the analysis of the specific conditions in the preceding sections, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward, as well as the problems that need further study in the future. It is pointed out that the quality and structure of the floating population are important factors for the formation and development of the economic growth pole. The port, the wartime capital and the third-line construction are the historical opportunities for the formation of Chongqing's economic growth pole, and the direct jurisdiction is the realistic motive force for the formation of Chongqing's economic growth pole. The public governance mode of the leather government is a matter of great importance for Chongqing to build an important economic growth in the West.
There are some new ideas in the following aspects:
1. Combine population flow with economic growth pole, and analyze the relationship between the regularity of population flow and the characteristics of economic growth pole.
2. From the historical perspective of population flow and economic growth in Chongqing, this paper analyzes the role of population flow in the process of economic development and the historical accumulation of the formation of economic growth pole.
3. The paper analyzes the mutual effects of population flow and economic structure, industrial structure, employment structure and floating population structure, and the quality of floating population on economic growth.
4. Establish the index system to evaluate the economic growth pole, and analyze the problem of population flow under the polarization effect and diffusion effect of economic growth pole.
The disadvantage of this paper is that it is difficult to accurately quantify the critical point of some policies and the timing of institutional reform because of the lack of a more subdivided time series data of population movements to establish a model to describe the relationship between economic growth and industrialization.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C922;F127
本文编号：2247963
[Abstract]:On March 8, 2007, when attending the deliberations of the Chongqing delegation at the Fifth Session of the Tenth National People's Congress, General Secretary Hu Jintao made three major positioning for the "directional navigation" of Chongqing's work, that is, to speed up the construction of Chongqing as an important growth pole in the western region, an economic center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and a direct jurisdiction for the overall development of urban and rural areas. Based on the strategic decision to build Chongqing into an important growth pole, this paper studies the history, current situation and trend of population mobility in this context, and the role of population mobility in promoting economic growth pole.
Population migration is the object of demography research, and population mobility is a special phenomenon after the relaxation of the census register system. Since the gradual reform in China, population migration has become a development phenomenon. The study has important practical and theoretical significance.In the early period of reform and opening up, China was a dual economy with unlimited labor supply of Lewis-style.Until 2004, there was a "shortage of migrant workers" and "shortage of skilled workers" in the Pearl River Delta region. The tide of population migration has gradually changed from one-way flow in the 1990s to two-way flow. After the implementation of the western development, the return flow has become another social landscape in the new century.
After 30 years of development, the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Rim have become three important economic growth poles in the eastern region. Under the background of the continuous layout of the "reform pilot area", Chongqing has been required to develop into an important economic growth pole in the western region. In addition, the rural labor force "limited surplus", how to guide the flow of population to promote Chongqing's economy The formation and sustainable development of growth pole is an important problem for policy makers.
At present, there are few papers which combine the general law of population flow with the particularity of Chongqing's economy and society in theory, and there is even less research on the turning point of population flow, the relationship between population flow and the economic development stage of Chongqing, and the characteristics reflecting the trend of population flow. The scope of sociological and economic research, and to some extent, there is still a "different disciplines can not be effective dialogue between different disciplines, different disciplines on the study of population mobility is still in a state of self-talk, hindering the in-depth study." This paper attempts to use the combination of these disciplines, the flow of population. As the basic red line of Chongqing's economic development, to prevent the study of population flow from dissociating from economic development and social development, not only from the macro point of view, but also from the micro point of view to carefully investigate and carefully verify, so as to prevent the emergence of "hollowing" of the study, and to integrate this major development phenomenon of population flow into Chongqing. In the course of economic development, from a logical and historical point of view, this paper makes a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the historical accumulation and realistic motive force of Chongqing's economic growth pole. The eastern region has unique policy advantages; the second is that the income gap between urban and rural residents in Chongqing and the whole country can not be as big as the gap between the eastern region and the whole country, and can not form the "potential energy" of the income gap; the third is that after 30 years of reform and development, the system related to population mobility is undergoing a new turning point. Point, the household registration system has not been completely liberalized, the national regional, urban and rural integration of social security system has not yet been fully established, these system changes are in the breeding.
In fact, the population flow in Chongqing has appeared since the opening of the port. During the War of Resistance Against Japan, the inter-provincial population flow was the largest in scale and scope at that time, but the scale of urban-rural population flow was small. In the new century, the population flow between urban and rural areas and between districts and counties is accelerating. However, when the rural labor force goes out to seek non-agricultural employment, due to the lag of the government's public governance model and related system construction, it can not realize the transformation of peasants'identity to citizenship, which hinders the population's urban and rural areas to a certain extent. How can Chongqing become an important economic growth pole in the West under the existing constraints?
In the process of forming Chongqing's economic growth pole, the household registration system and social security system are important systems involving the relationship between urban and rural areas, the core system of population migration and the citizenization of peasant workers, and the important content of government governance. Improving the quality of floating population and optimizing the structure of floating population, coordinating the two labor markets at home and abroad, increasing the inflow of high-quality talents, transforming the stock of population resources into the advantages of human capital, and guiding the inflow of labor resources into the economic hinterland.
The structure and main points of this article are as follows:
First of all, the introduction mainly expounds the research background, the main purpose, the significance, the research methods, the data sources and the structure of this paper. Decision-making of public policies and the timing, target models and operational procedures for promoting economic and social system reforms.
Secondly, the paper summarizes the literature on the theory of population flow and economic growth pole, mainly introduces the theory and types of population flow, the evolution of labor migration theory at home and abroad and the latest research results in the world, the theory of economic growth pole at home and abroad and the theoretical results of combining the two theories, and gives the economic growth of this paper. The results of previous studies provide some theoretical support for this research topic.
Thirdly, it clarifies the relationship between population flow and economic growth pole, mainly introduces the interaction and dialectical relationship between population flow and economic growth pole, and analyzes the important role of population flow in the formation and development of economic growth pole.
Fourthly, the paper expounds the population flow and the economic development of Chongqing in modern times.It mainly introduces the population flow and the economic development of Chongqing in modern times, the population flow and the economic development of Chongqing in the period of opening a port, the population and the economic development of Chongqing from the 1911 Revolution to the Anti-Japanese War, the population situation of Chongqing in the period of Anti-Japanese War, and the economic development of Chongqing in the period of Anti-Japanese The form of war is also an important factor affecting the flow of population and the quality of floating population plays an important role in promoting the economic development of Chongqing during the Anti-Japanese War.
Fifthly, this paper expounds the relationship between population flow and the economic development of contemporary Chongqing. It mainly introduces the important role of the third-line construction in promoting the economic development of Chongqing, the migration of population in the Three Gorges Project in Chongqing reservoir area. From the industrial structure, ownership structure, the degree of urbanization analysis; floating population structure on economic growth impact analysis, floating population quality on economic growth impact analysis, population flow on economic growth effect analysis, population flow and industrial structure upgrade correlation analysis, population flow and economic development in Chongqing grey It is pointed out that the population inflow and outflow have greater impact on economic growth and the quality of floating population plays an important role in promoting economic growth.
Sixthly, it clarifies the population flow in the process of forming and developing the economic growth pole. It analyzes the necessary conditions for building the economic growth pole from the composition factors of the economic growth pole and the two effects of the economic growth pole. It also analyzes the evaluation index system of the formation of the growth pole. Analytical method and principal component analysis method are used to evaluate and analyze the population flow in the growth pole theory, which mainly analyzes the change and adjustment of population flow in the economic growth region, the formation of population flow and economic growth pole, the population flow under the economic growth pole effect, especially the population flow and people under the polarization effect and diffusion effect. The polarization effect of population flow on Chongqing's economic growth is pointed out. It is more important for Chongqing to promote the formation of growth pole by population inflow in the process of building economic growth pole. The formation of growth pole should be guided by population inflow in economic hinterland and broadening international horizon rather than the transfer of labor force in Chongqing.
Seventh, the main conclusions and policy recommendations of the study are refined. The main conclusions of the study are drawn based on the analysis of the specific conditions in the preceding sections, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward, as well as the problems that need further study in the future. It is pointed out that the quality and structure of the floating population are important factors for the formation and development of the economic growth pole. The port, the wartime capital and the third-line construction are the historical opportunities for the formation of Chongqing's economic growth pole, and the direct jurisdiction is the realistic motive force for the formation of Chongqing's economic growth pole. The public governance mode of the leather government is a matter of great importance for Chongqing to build an important economic growth in the West.
There are some new ideas in the following aspects:
1. Combine population flow with economic growth pole, and analyze the relationship between the regularity of population flow and the characteristics of economic growth pole.
2. From the historical perspective of population flow and economic growth in Chongqing, this paper analyzes the role of population flow in the process of economic development and the historical accumulation of the formation of economic growth pole.
3. The paper analyzes the mutual effects of population flow and economic structure, industrial structure, employment structure and floating population structure, and the quality of floating population on economic growth.
4. Establish the index system to evaluate the economic growth pole, and analyze the problem of population flow under the polarization effect and diffusion effect of economic growth pole.
The disadvantage of this paper is that it is difficult to accurately quantify the critical point of some policies and the timing of institutional reform because of the lack of a more subdivided time series data of population movements to establish a model to describe the relationship between economic growth and industrialization.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C922;F127
【引证文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 张杰;太极拳在美国的传播及文化影响[D];北京体育大学;2012年
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