辽宁省人口迁移与经济发展的定量研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 17:04

【摘要】：随着振兴东北老工业基地、发展辽宁沿海经济带、建设沈阳经济区等重大战略的实施,辽宁省近年来的经济社会发展呈现出前所未有的强劲势头。与此同时,伴随经济的快速发展,对外开放的日益扩大,人口迁移数量也在逐年递增,并呈现出外向化和多元化的新特点、新趋势,对经济社会的发展产生了深刻的影响。为了促进辽宁省经济社会协调健康发展,有必要进一步考察辽宁省人口迁移的特点,深入了解人口迁移与经济发展的内在逻辑关系和相互作用机理。针对发展中存在的矛盾和问题制定出更加切实可行的措施,科学合理地引导人口迁移。这是本文研究的背景和出发点。本文以辽宁省为例,采用定性与定量相结合的手段,系统地研究人口迁移与经济发展的相互关系。运用数据分析、统计分析等定量工具考察辽宁省人口迁移的基本特征；运用面板数据模型对人口迁移与经济发展的相互作用效果进行动态量化分析；利用聚类分析探析了人口迁移的地区差异；在实证研究结果的基础上,对人口迁移和经济发展中存在的问题进行分析并提出相应的对策建议。本文的研究主要有下列发现：第一,辽宁省人口迁移的规模在不断扩大,迁移人口主要活跃在沈阳、大连、鞍山这三个城市,迁移人口中绝大部分为劳动适龄人口,省内迁移人口女性多于男性,受教育程度普遍较高,对各种职业的选择相对均衡,迁移的原因以社会型和搬迁性为主,省外迁移人口男性多于女性,受教育程度呈现“两头高,中间低”的特点,从事体力型职业的比重很大,迁移的原因主要以劳动型和社会型为主。第二,经济因素对省外人口迁入的作用显著,对省内人口迁入的影响不明显；反之,省外人口迁入积极地促进了经济发展,而省内人口迁入却在某种程度上抑制了经济的进步。经济因素对省外人口迁入和省内人口迁入的影响程度之所以存在差异,本文认为是由于省外和省内的迁移原因不同造成的。而省外迁入和省内迁入对经济发展的作用相反可能与迁入人口的年龄结构、性别结构以及职业结构有关。第三,人口迁移与经济发展的互动关系存在比较明显的地区差异：经济发达的地区,同时也是省际人口迁入的强势吸引中心,省际人口迁入与经济发展之间的正影响很强；经济发展一般的地区,人口迁移活动较弱,人口迁移与经济发展之间的作用不显著；经济相对落后的地区,省内人口迁移比省际人口迁移活跃,但省内人口迁入与经济发展之间负相关。基于上述结论,本文提出了如下的建议：第一,加快沿海经济带和沈阳经济区的建设,推进城市群的一体化发展,发挥中心城市的辐射带动作用,加强中心城市对人口迁入的吸引力；第二,深化户籍制度、就业制度以及社会保障制度的改革,建立市场化的人口迁移流动机制和统一开放、公平竞争的劳动力市场,保障迁移人口的基本权益；第三,重视经济落后地区的发展,实行灵活的用人与收入分配机制,优化迁移人口的服务功能；第四,建立科学的迁移人口统计调查监测体系,完善人口信息管理,保证人口统计信息统一、准确、完整,以便为科学决策提供有力支撑。本文的创新点有：第一,首次对辽宁省内各地级市的人口迁移与经济发展问题进行比较深入的定量研究,不仅分析了省际人口迁移,还分析了省内人口迁移；第二,在定性分析的基础上,运用数据分析、面板数据模型、聚类分析等多种定量分析技术,使得问题的研究和结论更加科学化和缜密化。本文的不足之处有：第一,因实证部分的人口迁移数据有些采用的是户籍人口迁移数据,所以相应的实证结果只能说明户籍人口迁移与经济发展的关系。第二,由于数据不足,本文无法对人口迁移和经济发展是否存在异时累积效应以及是否存在结构性差异进行研究。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of major strategies such as revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China, developing the coastal economic belt of Liaoning Province, and building the Shenyang Economic Zone, the economic and social development of Liaoning Province has shown an unprecedented strong momentum in recent years. At the same time, with the rapid development of economy, the opening up has been expanding day by day, and the number of population migration has been increasing year by year, and showing an unprecedented trend. In order to promote the coordinated and healthy development of economy and society in Liaoning Province, it is necessary to further investigate the characteristics of population migration in Liaoning Province, and to deeply understand the internal logical relationship and interaction mechanism between population migration and economic development. It is the background and starting point of this paper to formulate more feasible measures to guide population migration scientifically and rationally.
Taking Liaoning Province as an example, this paper systematically studies the relationship between population migration and economic development by means of combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative analysis of state; cluster analysis is used to explore the regional differences of population migration; on the basis of empirical research results, the problems existing in population migration and economic development are analyzed and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
The main findings of this study are as follows: First, the scale of population migration in Liaoning Province is expanding. The migrants are mainly active in Shenyang, Dalian and Anshan. Most of the migrants are of working age. There are more females than males in Liaoning Province, and their educational level is generally higher, and their choices for various occupations are relatively high. Equilibrium, the main reasons for migration are social type and relocation. The migrant population outside the province has more males than females, and the educational level is "high at both ends, low in the middle". The proportion of physical occupations is very large. The main reasons for migration are labor type and social type. Second, economic factors play a significant role in the migration of the population outside the province. On the contrary, the population migration outside the province actively promotes economic development, while the population migration inside the province restrains economic progress to a certain extent. The effect of migration outside the province and within the province on economic development may be related to the age structure, gender structure and occupational structure of the immigrant population. Third, there are obvious regional differences in the interaction between migration and economic development: economically developed areas, but also the strong inter-provincial migration. Attraction center, inter-provincial population migration and economic development between the strong positive impact; economic development in general areas, population migration activities are weak, the role between population migration and economic development is not significant; relatively backward areas, inter-provincial population migration is more active than inter-provincial population migration, but the inter-provincial population migration and economic development between the negative. Relevant.
Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, speed up the construction of coastal economic zone and Shenyang economic zone, promote the integrated development of urban agglomeration, give full play to the radiating role of central cities, and strengthen the attraction of central cities to population migration; second, deepen the reform of household registration system, employment system and social security system. Third, pay attention to the development of economically backward areas, implement flexible employment and income distribution mechanism, and optimize the service function of migrant population; fourth, establish a scientific survey and supervision of migrant population. The system of population measurement should be improved to ensure the unification, accuracy and integrity of population statistical information so as to provide strong support for scientific decision-making.
The innovations of this paper are as follows: firstly, it is the first time to conduct a more in-depth quantitative study on the population migration and economic development of cities at all levels in Liaoning Province, not only analyzes the inter-provincial population migration, but also analyzes the inter-provincial population migration; secondly, on the basis of qualitative analysis, it uses data analysis, panel data model, cluster analysis and other determinations. Quantitative analysis technology makes the research and conclusion of the problem more scientific and meticulous.
The shortcomings of this paper are as follows: firstly, because some of the empirical data of population migration use household registration migration data, the corresponding empirical results can only explain the relationship between household registration migration and economic development. Whether there are structural differences are studied.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

【参考文献】