“全面二孩”政策下农村居民二胎生育意愿影响因素研究——以天津为例

发布时间：2018-10-08 18:48

【摘要】："全面二孩"政策是国家应对人口红利消退、劳动力成本上涨及人口老龄化的一项生育政策,该政策在农村如何才能有效落实、哪些因素是影响农村居民二胎生育意愿的主因则是两个待解问题。基于天津市农村418位已有一胎孩子居民的问卷调查数据,采用Logistic回归模型,对可能影响居民二胎生育意愿的人口统计特征、经济因素、家庭因素、工作特征、一胎孩子特征等进行了统计分析。居民的"兄弟姐妹数、月收入"对其二胎生育意愿呈正向作用;"受教育程度、一胎孩子年龄"对其二胎生育意愿呈负向作用;一胎孩子为女孩的居民比一胎孩子为男孩的居民二胎生育意愿更强;"性别、年龄、工作稳定性、孩子抚养费占比"对居民二胎生育意愿影响不显著。
[Abstract]:How can the "comprehensive two-child" policy, a fertility policy in response to the fading demographic dividend, rising labour costs and an ageing population, be effectively implemented in rural areas? What are the main factors that affect the willingness of rural residents to have a second child is the two unsolved problems. Based on the questionnaire survey data of 418 children with one child in rural areas of Tianjin, the Logistic regression model was used to analyze the demographic characteristics, economic factors, family factors and work characteristics of the residents who may influence their willingness to have a second child. The characteristics of one child were statistically analyzed. The "number of siblings, monthly income" had a positive effect on their second child's willingness to have children, "education level, age of one child" had a negative effect on their second child's desire to have children. Residents with one-child as a girl were more likely to have a second child than those with a first child as a boy, and "sex, age, job stability, child support ratio" had no significant influence on the second child's desire to have children.
【作者单位】：天津商业大学经济学院;
【基金】：2016年天津市哲学社会科学研究规划项目“天津市基本公共服务均等化的财政分权激励机制问题研究”(TJYY16-006) 2015年天津市科技发展战略研究计划项目“新形势新背景下深化科技体制机制创新的任务路径及对策研究”(15ZLZLZF00330) 全国统计科学研究项目“我国碳市场发展背景下的碳排放权分配方案优化统计研究”(2016LY77) 2016年天津商业大学“大创”项目“‘全面二孩’政策下农村居民二胎生育意愿影响因素研究——以天津为例”(201610069241)
【分类号】：C924.21

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