生育意愿:是确定值还是区间

发布时间：2018-10-12 06:33

【摘要】：本文以2015年先后在北京和天津开展的"居民生育意愿和行为研究"为例,探讨个体生育意愿存在区间范围的现象。研究证实,在数量方面,两成以上的人计划生育1到2个孩子,后来由于种种原因生育了1个或者2个。在性别方面,"儿女双全"是大多数人的美好愿望,但是可能仅有不到一成的人会为了实现"儿女双全"而坚持生育两个孩子。有性别偏好并不意味着就会人为选择子女性别,只有拥有强烈性别偏好的人群规模才会与出生性别比升高密切相关。在年龄方面,实际生育子女的年龄在理想生育年龄3岁左右的范围内,都被认为是满意的。充分认识到个体生育意愿并不是一个确定值而是存在一个区间范围,这对于生育水平的预测具有重要的认识论和方法论意义。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the phenomenon of the range of individuals' fertility intention based on the study of the residents' fertility intention and behavior which was carried out in Beijing and Tianjin in 2015 respectively. The study confirmed that more than 20 percent of people have one to two children in number, and later one or two for various reasons. In terms of gender, "both children" is the wish of most people, but perhaps less than 10% of people will insist on having two children in order to achieve "both children." Having a gender preference does not mean that a child's sex is artificially chosen. Only the size of the population with a strong gender preference is closely related to the increase in the sex ratio at birth. In terms of age, the actual childbearing age is considered satisfactory within the ideal childbearing age of 3 years or so. It is fully recognized that the individual fertility will is not a definite value but an interval range, which has important epistemological and methodological significance for the prediction of fertility level.
【作者单位】：天津社会科学院公共政策与社会治理研究中心社会学研究所;中央财经大学社会学系;中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“生育意愿和生育行为不一致现象的原因及其影响机制研究”(编号:15CRK008)阶段性成果
【分类号】：C924.21

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