人口老龄化背景下退休年龄调整问题研究

发布时间：2018-11-10 14:14

【摘要】：在我国人口预期寿命迅速提高、老龄化日益严峻的背景下，退休年龄保持不变导致劳动者退休后的生活时间不断延长、大量退休职工再就业，继而引发养老保险基金收支缺口日益扩大。由于退休年龄规定对劳动力供求平衡及养老保险基金良性运营的深刻影响，因此如何在科学预测基础上，有计划的对退休年龄做出适当调整，便成为一个重要的现实及学术问题。通过对国内外退休年龄概况及变动趋势分析可知：我国退休年龄的调整明显落后于社会经济发展的需要，提高退休年龄是人口老龄化背景下世界各国的共同选择，代表着改革的必然趋势，同时，，缩小男女退休年龄差距，直至实现男女同龄退休亦是实现社会进步的必然要求。为定量研究退休年龄调整的必要性及方式，本文选取了老龄化最为严重的上海为例，在运用调整后的宋健人口预测模型得出2009-2050年上海市分性别分年龄人口数的基础上，分析得出提高退休年龄是保证劳动力供应、保持养老保险基金社会统筹部分良性运行的必然选择；此外，针对养老保险的个人账户部分建立测算模型，测算得出不同退休年龄条件下个人账户养老金工资替代率，经比较发现延长退休年龄能显著提高个人账户工资替代率、促进老年人生活质量的提高。考虑到劳动者的态度对退休年龄调整成功与否有着重要影响，为了解劳动者的真实态度与想法，在上海市范围内采取抽样方式调查了分布在17个区的劳动者，获得一系列相关结论。最后，在定量研究与定性分析的基础上，综合考虑多方面的因素，建议按照统筹兼顾、循序渐进和男女同龄退休三原则对退休年龄政策加以调整，以2050年男女统一65岁退休为目标，结合对未来人口年龄结构变动的预测，选择合适时机，采取分群体、分步骤方式逐步达到设计目标。与此同时，辅以规范提前退休、实施弹性退休制度、大力促进就业、政府积极引导理论探讨四项措施确保退休年龄调整顺利推行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid increase of life expectancy and the increasingly severe aging of the population in our country, the maintenance of the retirement age leads to the continuous prolongation of the workers' living time after retirement, and a large number of retired workers are re-employed. Then lead to the pension fund income and expenditure gap is widening day by day. Because of the profound influence of the retirement age regulations on the balance of labor supply and demand and the sound operation of the pension insurance fund, how to make a proper adjustment of the retirement age in a planned way on the basis of scientific prediction, It has become an important practical and academic issue. By analyzing the general situation and changing trend of retirement age at home and abroad, we can see that the adjustment of retirement age in China lags behind the needs of social and economic development obviously. Raising retirement age is the common choice of countries in the world under the background of aging population. It represents the inevitable trend of reform, at the same time, narrowing the gap between male and female retirement age, until the realization of male and female retirement of the same age is also the inevitable requirement of social progress. In order to quantitatively study the necessity and method of the adjustment of retirement age, this paper selects Shanghai, which is the most aging city, as an example, on the basis of applying the adjusted population forecast model of Song Jian to arrive at the sex-age population of Shanghai in 2009-2050. It is concluded that raising the retirement age is the inevitable choice to ensure the supply of labor force and maintain the social balance of pension insurance fund. In addition, according to the personal account part of the old-age insurance, a calculation model is established to calculate the replacement rate of the pension wage of the individual account under different retirement age, and it is found by comparison that prolonging the retirement age can significantly improve the replacement rate of the individual account wage. To improve the quality of life of the elderly. Considering that the attitudes of workers have an important impact on the success of the adjustment of the retirement age, and in order to understand the true attitudes and ideas of workers, a sample survey was conducted in 17 districts in Shanghai, A series of relevant conclusions were obtained. Finally, on the basis of quantitative research and qualitative analysis, it is suggested that the policy of retirement age should be adjusted in accordance with the three principles of overall consideration, gradual progress and retirement of the same age for men and women. With the goal of male and female retirement of 65 years old in 2050, combined with the forecast of the change of population age structure in the future, this paper selects the right time, adopts the method of subgroup, and step by step to achieve the design goal step by step. At the same time, the government actively guided the theory to discuss four measures to ensure the smooth implementation of the adjustment of retirement age by standardizing early retirement, implementing the flexible retirement system, and vigorously promoting employment.
【学位授予单位】：上海工程技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C913.7;C924.24

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