对我国人口变动的影响因素及变动趋势研究

发布时间：2018-11-11 07:28

【摘要】：1990年以来,我国人口死亡率稳定在低水平,人口变动主要由出生率决定。人口变动不仅是单纯的人口问题,更是制度、经济、社会、观念、行为等一系列因素综合作用的结果。出生率的影响因素在不同的时间点和区域内对其影响效应不同。即使在同一时空内,由于条件不同,作用的方向和强度也有差异,并由此产生不同的影响结果。对1990年至2008年这一时期我国出生率变动趋势及影响因素进行理论和实证研究,并对我国中短期的人口变动情况进行预测,对于我国科学制定人口政策和保持社会稳定和谐发展具有重大意义。本文在总结前人研究的基础上,首先就我国人口变动现状进行描述性统计分析,为人口变动影响因素研究提供现实依据;其次,通过理论分析与数量分析相结合的方法,运用实验设计方法、格兰杰因果检验方法等,分别利用时间序列数据和横截面数据对1990年以来人口变动的影响因素进行研究,分析得出人口变动各影响因素的影响程度;最后,运用Winbugs软件建立出生率预测模型,并对出生率、总人口数和人口年龄结构等人口变动情况进行预测,并基于预测结果提出相关的政策建议。根据上述研究得出的主要结论有:(1)假设经济社会稳定发展,我国出生率在未来呈现逐年下降趋势。我国人口总数在2026年将达到峰值为140349.67万人,之后呈现逐年下降趋势。(2)计划生育人口政策因素并不是1990年以来出生率持续下降的显著影响因素。(3)经济因素、人口流动因素和教育因素为人口变动的显著影响因素。(4)假设经济社会稳定发展,按照预测结果,我国老年化指数在2020年将超过100%,老年负担系数逐年上升,这将对我国社会养老制度提出严峻考验。(5)针对研究结论提出的相关政策建议有:人口生育政策应进行合理调整;积极建立适应流动人口的社会保障制度;根据人口年龄结构变动的预测结果,切实做好提供社会福利、老龄医疗和退休金等多种社会服务工作;积极采取措施如考虑推迟法定退休年龄,减缓人口迅速老化将对我国社会经济可持续发展产生的消极影响。
[Abstract]:Since 1990, China's population mortality rate has stabilized at a low level, and population changes are mainly determined by the birth rate. Population change is not only a simple population problem, but also the result of a series of factors, such as system, economy, society, concept, behavior and so on. The influencing factors of birth rate have different effects at different time points and regions. Even in the same time and space, because of different conditions, the direction and intensity of action are different, and the result is different. This paper makes a theoretical and empirical study on the trend and influencing factors of birth rate in China during the period from 1990 to 2008, and forecasts the population changes in the short and medium term. It is of great significance for our country to make population policy scientifically and maintain social stability and harmonious development. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies, this paper firstly carries out descriptive statistical analysis on the current situation of population change in China, which provides a realistic basis for the study of the influencing factors of population change. Secondly, through the combination of theoretical analysis and quantitative analysis, using the experimental design method, Granger causality test and other methods, using time series data and cross-section data to study the impact factors of population change since 1990. The influence degree of the influencing factors of the population change is obtained by the analysis. Finally, the birth rate prediction model is established by using Winbugs software, and the population changes such as birth rate, total population size and population age structure are forecasted, and relevant policy suggestions are put forward based on the prediction results. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) assuming the stable development of economy and society, the birth rate of our country will decrease year by year in the future. The total population of our country will reach a peak of 1.4034967 billion in 2026, and then show a decreasing trend year after year. (2) the policy factor of family planning population is not a significant factor in the continuous decline of birth rate since 1990. (3) Economic factors. The factors of population mobility and education are the significant influencing factors of population change. (4) assuming the stable development of economy and society, according to the forecast results, the aging index of our country will exceed 100 by 2020, and the burden coefficient of old age will increase year by year. This will put forward a severe test to the social old-age system of our country. (5) the relevant policy recommendations in view of the conclusions of the study are: the population fertility policy should be rationally adjusted; We should actively establish a social security system adapted to the floating population, and do a good job in providing social welfare, medical care for the aged and retirement pensions according to the predicted results of the changes in the age structure of the population; Taking active measures such as delaying the legal retirement age and slowing down the rapid aging of the population will have a negative impact on the sustainable social and economic development of our country.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2

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