经济驱动下的人口省际流动研究——以安徽为例

发布时间：2018-11-13 21:02

【摘要】：安徽省人口跨省流动具有规模大、流向集中、各研究单元人口省际净流出规模和比重差异明显的特点。文章利用安徽省2001-2012年以县(地级市区)为单元的面板数据,以各研究单元净流出率为因变量,以流出地和流入地人均GDP比值为自变量,利用回归分析方法构建定量模型。研究表明:两者呈指数递减关系,随着流出地和流入地人均GDP比值升高,各研究单元净流出率呈指数趋势下降;利用历史分析方法发现2001年、2004年、2009年、2012年回归系数绝对值在下降,表明随着时间推移,人口流动对经济因子的敏感性在降低;通过横断面分析发现经济欠发达的皖北地区人口流动对经济因子的敏感性大于经济发达的皖南地区。研究还表明人口流动是区域发展差距导致,从财政、土地、基础设施、税收、管理服务方面创造承接转移产业和发展内生产业的积极条件,是提高发展中地区经济发展水平,留住发展要素,吸引人口回流的重要途径。
[Abstract]:The population flow across provinces in Anhui Province has the characteristics of large scale, concentrated flow direction, and obvious differences in the scale and proportion of population outflow among different provinces. Based on the panel data from 2001 to 2012 in Anhui Province, taking the net outflow rate of each unit as dependent variable and the ratio of GDP per capita of outflow land and inflow land as independent variable, a quantitative model is constructed by using regression analysis method. The results showed that the ratio of GDP per capita increased with the increase of GDP ratio of outflow and inflow, and the net outflow rate of each unit decreased exponentially. Using the method of historical analysis, we find that the absolute value of regression coefficient in 2001, 2004, 2009 and 2012 is decreasing, which indicates that the sensitivity of population flow to economic factors decreases with time. Through cross-sectional analysis, it is found that the sensitivity of population mobility to economic factors in the economically underdeveloped area of northern Anhui is greater than that in the economically developed area of southern Anhui. The study also shows that population mobility is the result of regional development gap, and that creating positive conditions for undertaking transfer industries and developing endogenous industries from the aspects of finance, land, infrastructure, taxation and management services is to improve the level of economic development in developing regions. The important way to retain the development elements and attract the population to return.
【作者单位】：南京大学建筑与城市规划学院;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2010CB428506) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071325)
【分类号】：F127;C924.2

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