多尺度下长江中游城市群人口分布的时空演化特征分析

发布时间：2018-11-14 19:12

【摘要】：城市群日益成为我国人口集聚和城镇化发展的重要载体,2015年4月《长江中游城市群发展规划》的提出标志着长江中游城市群建设正式上升为国家发展战略。人口分布是人口过程在空间上的表现形式,人口区域分布协调均衡是社会有序的基础,人口空间分布及演化作为人口问题研究的核心内容,具有重要的理论与实践意义。以此为背景,采用“五普”“六普”人口数据资料,利用空间插值模拟、人口分布结构指数、人口重心、空间自相关模型等方法,从人口密度、人口城镇化和人口老龄化的空间格局演变三个视角,基于不同空间尺度,分析了2000-2010年长江中游城市群人口空间分布的基本特征与演变趋势。结果表明:(1)2000-2010年长江中游城市群人口分布的“多中心”结构趋势日益明显。市域尺度下人口密度分布呈现出由“单中心”向“多中心”结构模式的发展趋势,而县域尺度下人口密度分布的“多中心”结构特征更加明显,并且形成了围绕中部“绿心”的环状式人口密度分布格局。(2)在以人口“镇”化为主要驱动力下,长江中游城市群实现了人口城镇化的快速发展,城镇化水平经历了由以长江为界北高南低分布向沿长江、京九和浙赣沿线地区分布的发展过程,形成了以武汉、长沙和南昌为核心的“多中心”结构的分布格局。县域尺度下的人口城镇化格局反映出长江中游城市群县人口城镇化发展不足的问题,人口城镇化高水平区域主要还是集中于经济发展水平高、交通发达、基础设施完善的中心城区及其周边县(区)。(3)在城镇化快速发展的同时,长江中游城市群发展面临着较为严重的老龄化问题。市域尺度下的人口老龄化格局分析显示,截至2010年除景德镇、吉安市之外,各地市均已进入了不同程度的老龄化阶段,人口老龄化水平呈由西至东递减的空间分布格局,而县域尺度下的这种分布格局特征更加明显。(4)通过人口结构指数、重心模型及空间自相关的分析表明,长江中游城市群人口分布的非均衡特征显著,总人口及城镇人口重心呈南移趋势,武汉、长沙、南昌三中心城市一直是人口分布的主要集中地,人口集聚水平不断提升,但城市群整体的人口集聚水平不足;空间自相关分析进一步展现了长江中游城市群人口空间分布的异质性及变化特征,人口密度与人口城镇化的具有一定的空间集聚现象,但是空间关联性较弱,而人口老龄化的空间集聚性和关联性则较强。
[Abstract]:Urban agglomeration has increasingly become an important carrier of population agglomeration and urbanization in China. The proposal of "Urban agglomeration development plan in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River" in April 2015 indicates that the construction of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has become a national development strategy. Population distribution is the manifestation of population process in space, and the coordination and balance of population regional distribution is the basis of social order. As the core content of population research, population spatial distribution and evolution have important theoretical and practical significance. In this context, the population data of "five popular" and "six popular" are used, and the methods of spatial interpolation simulation, population distribution structure index, population center of gravity, spatial autocorrelation model and so on are used to analyze the population density. Based on different spatial scales, the basic characteristics and evolution trend of population spatial distribution in urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2000 to 2010 are analyzed from three perspectives of population urbanization and population aging. The results show that: (1) the trend of "multi-center" structure of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2000 to 2010 is more and more obvious. The population density distribution shows the trend from "single center" to "multi-center" structure in the scale of city, and the "multi-center" structure of population density distribution in county scale is more obvious. And formed a circular pattern of population density distribution around the "green heart" in the middle of the Yangtze River. (2) under the main driving force of population "town", the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has realized the rapid development of population urbanization. The urbanization level has experienced the development process from the north high to the south low distribution along the Yangtze River to the area along the Yangtze River, Beijing-Jiu and Zhejiang and Jiangxi, forming the "multi-center" distribution pattern with Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang as the core. The pattern of population urbanization in the county scale reflects the insufficient development of population urbanization in the urban agglomeration counties in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The high level areas of population urbanization are mainly concentrated on the high level of economic development and the developed transportation. With the rapid development of urbanization, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is facing a serious problem of aging while the infrastructure is perfect in the central city area and its surrounding counties (). (3). The analysis of population aging pattern on the scale of city area shows that by 2010, except Jingdezhen and Ji'an, all prefectures and cities have entered different stages of aging, and the aging level of population is decreasing from west to east. The distribution pattern in the county scale is more obvious. (4) through the analysis of population structure index, barycenter model and spatial autocorrelation, the disequilibrium characteristics of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are obvious. The total population and the center of gravity of urban population are moving southward. Wuhan, Changsha and Nanchang are the main centers of population distribution, and the level of population agglomeration is rising constantly, but the overall population concentration level of urban agglomeration is insufficient. Spatial autocorrelation analysis further shows the heterogeneity and variation of urban population distribution in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Population density and population urbanization have some spatial agglomeration phenomenon, but the spatial correlation is weak. The spatial agglomeration and correlation of population aging is stronger.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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