我国人口的社会结构失衡:理论机制与经验事实

发布时间：2018-11-19 11:35

【摘要】：随着生育率水平的持续下降,我国不仅面临人口数量增长的困境,而且也发生了严重的人口社会结构失衡。文章基于教育资源稀释理论,从理论和经验两个方面研究了教育与生育率之间的相互作用以及由此所决定的人口发展规律,从而论证了人口社会结构失衡现象及其形成机制。研究表明:(1)教育与生育率之间的相互作用机制,一方面可以使生育率水平持续上升,导致人口发展进入高生育陷阱,另一方面也能够使生育率水平不断下降,让人口发展滑入低生育陷阱,由此形成了人口发展的"Z"形变化规律,即在中等教育水平上教育与生育率之间显著负相关,而在较高和较低的教育水平上两者并无明显关联;(2)由于我国的教育发展存在明显的城乡差距、地区差距和民族差距,那么在"Z"形人口发展规律的影响下,所有居民必然会逐步分化为两类,分别向生育率的高低两端集聚,从而就产生了人口的城乡结构、地区结构、民族结构和素质结构的失衡。进一步地,文章基于全国人口普查县级数据,使用工具变量法和Hausman-Taylor估计方法,验证了这种"Z"形人口发展规律及其所决定的人口社会结构失衡。文章不仅可以丰富当前的人口结构研究,而且对我国的人口和教育改革具有重要的启示。
[Abstract]:With the continuous decline of fertility rate, China is not only faced with the dilemma of population growth, but also has a serious imbalance of population social structure. Based on the theory of dilution of educational resources, this paper studies the interaction between education and fertility rate and the law of population development from two aspects of theory and experience, thus proves the phenomenon of population social structure imbalance and its formation mechanism. Studies have shown that: (1) the mechanism of interaction between education and fertility can, on the one hand, lead to a sustained rise in fertility levels, leading to a high fertility trap for population development, and, on the other hand, enable fertility levels to continue to decline, Let the population development slide into the low fertility trap, and form the "Z" pattern of the population development, that is, in the secondary education level, there is a significant negative correlation between the education and the fertility rate, but in the higher and lower education level, there is no obvious correlation between the two; (2) due to the obvious gap between urban and rural areas, regional and ethnic disparities in the development of education in China, then under the influence of the "Z" pattern of population development, all the residents will inevitably be divided into two categories. The population's urban-rural structure, regional structure, national structure and quality structure are out of balance. Furthermore, based on the county-level data of the national census, the paper verifies the "Z" pattern of population development and the determined imbalance of population social structure by using the instrumental variable method and Hausman-Taylor estimation method. This paper not only enriches the current research on population structure, but also has important implications for China's population and education reform.
【作者单位】：山东财经大学经济学院;山东财经大学计算机科学与技术学院;
【基金】：山东省软科学研究计划重大项目(2016RZB01041) 山东省社会科学规划研究项目(16CGLJ10) 山东省高等学校优势学科人才团队培育计划
【分类号】：C924.2

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