1982-2010年基于不同统计数据的中国城市人口规模体系研究

发布时间：2018-11-28 07:47

【摘要】：城市规模体系是城市地理和城市规划的基础研究内容,对合理确定城市发展政策具有重要作用。文中在总结不同城市人口统计口径的基础上,通过金字塔结构和齐普夫位序规模回归方法,探究了不同城市人口规模指代数据的适用性,分析了1982年以来我国城市人口规模体系的演变过程。研究发现:(1)城市实体地域与行政地域的区别是城市人口统计问题的根源,户籍市区非农业人口显著低估了中国大城市对人口的吸纳能力,将逐渐退出城市人口规模研究;(2)建议在今后的历史城市规模讨论中,使用第三、五、六次人口普查数据中的城市人口数量作为城市规模的指代数值,1990年户籍市区非农业人口数量可以在一定程度上反映当年的城市人口规模;(3)受行政区划调整和城市化政策的影响,1982-2010年我国城市人口规模体系结构变化明显,集聚度先降后升。
[Abstract]:Urban scale system is the basic research content of urban geography and urban planning, which plays an important role in the rational determination of urban development policy. On the basis of summarizing different urban demographics, this paper explores the applicability of different urban population scale reference data through pyramid structure and Zipf order scale regression method. This paper analyzes the evolution process of urban population scale system in China since 1982. The results show that: (1) the difference between the urban entity region and the administrative region is the root of the urban demographics problem. The non-agricultural population in the registered urban areas has significantly underestimated the capacity of the large cities in China to absorb the population and will gradually withdraw from the study of the urban population scale; (II) it is recommended that the number of urban populations in the data from the third, fifth and sixth censuses be used as a reference to the size of cities in future discussions on the size of historical cities; The number of non-agricultural population in 1990 can reflect the scale of urban population in that year to a certain extent. (3) under the influence of the adjustment of administrative division and the policy of urbanization, the structure of urban population scale system in China changed obviously from 1982 to 2010, and the degree of convergence decreased first and then increased.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71433008;41230632)资助
【分类号】：C924.2

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