老龄化与省际经济增长倒U型关系检验

发布时间：2018-11-28 17:55

【摘要】：中国进入快速的人口老龄化阶段,对于老龄化与经济增长关系如何认识,是值得不断研究的课题。采用面板分位数和面板非参数模型实证检验了老年人口比重对省际经济增长的影响,研究发现:老年人口比重与经济增长之间存在倒U型关系,不同分位数条件下,老年人口比重对经济增长影响的转折点有所不同。总体上,老年人口比重对省际经济增长率具有正向影响,但是效应是逐渐递减的,当超过转折点之后,其效应由显著正向影响变为不显著负向影响。面板非参数估计表明,老年人口比重对经济增长的影响随经济发展水平程度的提高而逐渐减弱,并向负向效应转变,但是当经济发展水平达到一定程度之后,老年人口比重的提高转而对经济增长具有正向效应。
[Abstract]:As China enters the stage of rapid population aging, it is worth studying how to understand the relationship between aging and economic growth. By using panel quantile and panel nonparametric model, the paper empirically tests the effect of the proportion of elderly population on interprovincial economic growth. The results show that there is an inverted U-type relationship between the proportion of elderly population and economic growth, and under different quantiles, there is a negative U-type relationship between the proportion of elderly population and economic growth. The impact of the proportion of the elderly population on economic growth is different from the turning point. In general, the proportion of elderly population has a positive effect on the inter-provincial economic growth rate, but the effect is decreasing gradually. After the turning point, the effect changes from the significant positive effect to the non-significant negative effect. Panel non-parametric estimates show that the impact of the proportion of the elderly population on economic growth decreases gradually with the increase of the level of economic development, and changes to a negative effect, but when the level of economic development reaches a certain level, The increase in the proportion of the elderly population in turn has a positive effect on economic growth.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学青年项目:“我国城市社区转型及其治理研究——基于公共产品供给的政治经济学分析”(编号:41101140) 教育部人文社科青年项目“省管县财政体制背景下省以下财政分权、转移支付对县域政府行为影响实证研究”(编号:12YJC790125) 华南理工大学中央高校985基金“省以下财政分权、转移支付效应实证检验和分解——基于空间面板模型的实证研究”(编号:2011SM005)
【分类号】：C924.24;F124;F224

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