中国的人口变动:1978—2012

发布时间：2019-01-07 13:44

【摘要】：中国自1978年推行改革开放以来,经济实现了迅速的增长。在这一过程中,人口与劳动力也经历了深刻的变动。人口总数从1978年的9.6亿增长到2012年的13.5亿,人口增长率从1978年的1.2%下降到2012年的0.5%。城市常住人口占总人口的比重从1978年的17.9%上升到2012年的52.6%。劳动力就业结构也发生了显著的变化。农业劳动力在总劳动力中所占的比重从1978年的70.5%下降到2011年的34.8%,工业与服务业劳动力在总劳动力中所占的比重分别从1978年的17.3%和12.2%上升到2011年的29.5%和35.7%。农业劳动力数量自2003年后再次经历持续的下降。推动中国过去30多年人口变迁与劳动力转移的一个主要力量是经济增长。在总体上,中国的人口变迁与劳动力转移呈现出一些伴随经济增长的普遍的规律性现象。然而,由于在过去30多年期间中国推行的特殊的人口政策——具有指令性计划性质的计划生育政策和管制性的户籍政策,造成了一些人口变迁和人口结构上的扭曲。当前,中国整体上仍属于中低收入国家,但人口增长率、生育率已达到历史上发达国家基本完成工业化和城市化时的水平,并开始面临发达国家进入后工业化时代(工业在经济中的比重开始下降)才开始出现的人口老龄化与年轻劳动力短缺,而中国当前还远未完成工业化与城市化的进程。在未来5~10年内,中国需要对现行的人口政策进行一些重大的调整,包括全面取消具有指令性计划性质的计划生育及管制性的户籍政策,对属于高中阶段的工业与农业职业技术教育实行免费。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has achieved rapid growth. In this process, the population and labor force also experienced profound changes. The population grew from 960 million in 1978 to 1.35 billion in 2012, and the population growth rate fell from 1.2 percent in 1978 to 0.5 percent in 2012. The proportion of urban residents rose from 17.9% in 1978 to 52.6% in 2012. The structure of labor force employment has also changed significantly. The share of agricultural labour in the total labour force fell from 70.5 per cent in 1978 to 34.8 per cent in 2011. The proportion of industrial and service labor in the total labor force rose from 17.3 percent and 12.2 percent in 1978 to 29.5 percent and 35.7percent in 2011, respectively. The number of agricultural workers has continued to decline since 2003. A major driver of demographic change and labor migration in China over the past 30 years has been economic growth. On the whole, China's population changes and labor transfer show some general regular phenomena accompanied by economic growth. However, because of the special population policy that China has implemented in the past 30 years-the family planning policy with the nature of directive plan and the household registration policy with control, it has caused some demographic changes and demographic distortions. At present, China as a whole still belongs to the low- and middle-income countries, but the population growth rate and the fertility rate have reached the level that the developed countries basically completed industrialization and urbanization in history. And it is facing the aging population and the shortage of young labor force that began to appear in the developed countries in the post-industrialization era (the proportion of industry in the economy began to decline), while China is still far from completing the process of industrialization and urbanization. In the next five to 10 years, China will need to make some major adjustments to its current population policy, including the total elimination of the family planning and controlled household registration policy, which has the nature of mandatory planning. Vocational and technical education in industry and agriculture, which belongs to senior high school, is free of charge.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：南京农业大学经济管理学院的支持
【分类号】：C924.24

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