京津冀地区人口发展格局与问题区域识别

发布时间：2019-01-07 19:33

【摘要】：基于2000和2010年中国人口普查分县数据,借助空间分析方法揭示近期京津冀地区人口分布格局特征、人口发展综合指数,并通过构建人口发展问题区域识别方法划分问题区域。结果表明:(1)京津冀人口空间分布疏密差异大,人口城镇化水平增长速度快但县域城镇化水平偏低,区域老年人口比重年均增长0.6个百分点,人口受教育水平地区差异大;(2)人口发展综合指数介于0.0816~0.7670,分别有50%和25%的区县综合指数介于0.2~0.3和0.3~0.4;(3)京津冀地区可划分为8类人口发展问题区域,即综合发展滞后区(11.76%)、人口密度偏低区(3.92%)、城镇化水平偏低区(2.94%)、人口老龄化突出区(13.24%)、受教育水平偏低区(21.08%)、人口密度偏低复合问题区(9.80%)、城镇化水平偏低复合问题区(15.69%)、无突出人口问题区(21.57%)。研究认为,京津冀地区未来应以产业布局与发展为引导构建合理的人口格局,完善区域公共服务体系促进人口有序有效疏解,重视并积极推进京津冀区域次级中心全面发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 2000 and 2010 population censuses in China, the spatial analysis method is used to reveal the characteristics of population distribution pattern and population development index in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions in recent years, and to divide the problem regions by constructing a regional identification method for population development problems. The results are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei population varies greatly, the level of population urbanization increases rapidly, but the urbanization level of county is low, and the proportion of the elderly population in the region increases by 0.6 percentage points per year. The educational level of population varies greatly in different regions; (2) the comprehensive index of population development is between 0.0816 and 0.7670, and there are 50% and 25% of the district and county comprehensive index between 0.2% and 0.30.40 respectively; (3) the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be divided into 8 types of population development problem areas, namely, the areas with backward comprehensive development (11.76%), the low population density areas (3.92%), and the low urbanization level areas (2.94%). Population aging area (13.24%), low education level area (21.08%), population density low complex problem area (9.80%), low urbanization level complex problem area (15.69%), population aging area (13.24%), low education level (21.08%), low population density area (9.80%), low urbanization level (15.69%), Areas with no prominent population problems (21.57%). The study holds that the future of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should be guided by the industrial distribution and development to construct a reasonable population pattern, to perfect the regional public service system and to promote the orderly and effective population understanding, and to attach importance to and actively promote the overall development of the sub-centers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
【作者单位】：北京市社会科学院管理研究所;兰州理工大学设计艺术学院;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院精准扶贫评估研究中心;中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA021) 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731286);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571166)
【分类号】：C924.2

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