人口老龄化对人力资本投资的“倒U”影响效应——理论机制与中日韩比较研究

发布时间：2019-01-25 21:08

【摘要】：中日韩三国是东亚典型的人口老龄化国家,日本老龄化程度最高,韩国老龄化速度最快,中国老龄化人口规模最大,人口老龄化对三国人力资本投资产生了重要影响。文章利用个体固定效应模型,对中日韩三国1971—2013年的面板数据进行研究,分析人口老龄化与人力资本投资的关系以及各国人口老龄化对人力资本投资的影响程度,发现三国的拟合图形呈现"倒U型",即人口老龄化对人力资本投资影响先正后负,转折的临界点在10%左右。当跨过临界点后,随着老龄化水平的不断加深,人力资本投资减少的速度将加快,当老龄化水平达到30%左右时,老龄化水平每提高1%,人力资本投资水平就会减少1%。同时,由于三国在公共教育支出规模、支出结构、区域分布等个体特征的差异,中国、韩国和日本分别处于倒U型的上升阶段、平稳阶段及下降阶段。日韩两国人口老龄化对公共教育支出发展呈现近似"倒U型"的趋势验证了公共资源存在代际竞争的结论。为了缓解老龄化对公共支出的挤出效应,两国都采取了很多措施,多年来形成了完善的政策制度体系。两国应对人口老龄化的经验丰富,但也存在许多教训。日韩两国老龄化对人力资本投资影响态势预示着中国未来可能的发展趋势。中国应借鉴日韩两国经验,在控制老龄化快速发展的同时,构建完善的老年人法律保护体系,维护老年人权益,协调公共资源分配,改善教育投入结构。加大人力资本投资,应对人口老龄化引发的人力资本投资趋向的可能改变,实现社会经济的持续发展。
[Abstract]:China, Japan and Korea are typical aging countries in East Asia. Japan has the highest aging degree, Korea has the fastest aging speed, and China has the largest aging population. Population aging has an important impact on the human capital investment of the three countries. Using the individual fixed effect model, this paper studies the panel data of China, Japan and South Korea from 1971-2013, and analyzes the relationship between population aging and human capital investment and the influence of aging population on human capital investment. It is found that the fitting pattern of the three countries is "inverted U-shaped", that is, the effect of population aging on human capital investment is positive first and then negative, and the critical point of turning point is about 10%. After crossing the critical point, with the deepening of the aging level, the speed of human capital investment decrease will be accelerated. When the aging level reaches 30%, the level of human capital investment will be reduced by 1% for each increase of the aging level. At the same time, due to the differences of public education expenditure scale, expenditure structure, regional distribution and other individual characteristics, China, Korea and Japan are in the inverted U-type rising stage, steady stage and declining stage respectively. The trend of population aging in Japan and South Korea on the development of public education expenditure is similar to "inverted U shape", which verifies the conclusion that there is intergenerational competition in public resources. In order to alleviate the crowding out effect of aging on public expenditure, both countries have taken a lot of measures and formed a perfect policy system for many years. The two countries have plenty of experience in coping with ageing populations, but there are also many lessons to be learned. The influence of aging in Japan and South Korea on human capital investment indicates the possible development trend of China in the future. China should draw lessons from the experiences of Japan and South Korea, while controlling the rapid development of aging, build a perfect legal protection system for the elderly, safeguard the rights and interests of the elderly, coordinate the allocation of public resources, and improve the structure of educational input. To increase the investment of human capital, to deal with the possible change of the trend of human capital investment caused by the aging of population, and to realize the sustainable development of social economy.
【作者单位】：山东大学(威海)商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“老龄化条件下家庭人力资本投资的代际合作与竞争关系研究”(批准号:71573158) 教育部人文社科规划课题“中日韩人口老龄化与经济增长方式转型比较研究”(批准号:13YJAZH056)
【分类号】：C924.24;C924.312.6;C924.313

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