我国中部地区省际人口流出及其影响研究

发布时间：2019-01-27 09:21

【摘要】：21世纪以来,我国中部地区省际流出人口规模占全国跨省流出人口的四成以上,随着中部流出人口规模比例的不断扩大,对中部人口流出的研究显得必要和迫切。本文利用多种宏观和微观数据,结合多种方法,从中部省际人口流出的特征及变化、流出原因和人口流出后对中部地区的影响三方面进行系统研究。首先,利用2000年以来历次全国人口普查、全国1%抽样调查数据和2015年流动人口动态监测数据,采用描述性分析方法,从整体和分省角度对中部地区人口流出作变动和现状分析。结果发现中部省际流出人口规模增速有所上升,但相对全国有所放缓;中部流出人口的流向选择具有区域聚集性,而这种集聚性有扩散趋势,开始逐渐从珠三角向长三角经济带转移;中部地区与中部地区之间人口流动的互动关系也有所加强。其次,通过建立线性方程组模型和多分类Logit模型分别从宏观层面和微观层面分析了中部地区流出人口流向选择的影响因素,结果发现距离、教育投入和经济因素对中部人口流出的影响最为明显,而医疗、失业率、城镇化率、交通便利性并不明显。最后,通过建立面板数据模型,从经济增长、地区经济差距两个方面研究中部人口流出的影响,结果发现中部各省人口流出的影响有所差异,但从整体来看中部人口跨省流出不利于中部地区经济增长,也不利于缩小中部地区与中部跨省流出人口主要流向地的经济差距。中部地区人口基数大,经济发展相对滞后,人口流出是个人出于利益最大化的理性选择结果,继续推行促进劳动力自由流动的方针政策仍有必要。与此同时,伴随中部人口流出对中部地区可能造成的行业就业替代等问题也需要得到重视。政府应积极发挥公共服务提供者的作用,加大对中部地区教育、医疗和基础设施建设等方面的投入,并积极采取措施,因地制宜,促进中部地区发展具有自身比较优势的产品和服务。通过本文的研究,希望能够更加深入了解中部地区人口流出与中部地区经济发展的互动关系,从而更好地推动“中部崛起”战略的实施。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, the scale of inter-provincial outflow of population in central China has accounted for more than 40% of the cross-provincial outflow population in China. With the expansion of the proportion of population outflow in central China, it is necessary and urgent to study the outflow of population in central China. This paper makes a systematic study on the characteristics and changes of inter-provincial population outflow in central China, the causes of outflow and the influence on the central region after outflow by using a variety of macro and micro data and combined with various methods. First of all, using the national population censuses since 2000, the national 1% sample survey data and the 2015 mobile population dynamics monitoring data, the descriptive analysis method is used. This paper analyzes the changes and current situation of population outflow in central China from the angle of whole and province. The results show that the growth rate of the population outflow from central provinces is increasing, but it is slower than that of the whole country. The flow direction selection of the outflow population in the central region has the regional aggregation, and this kind of agglomeration has the tendency of diffusion, beginning to transfer gradually from the Pearl River Delta to the economic belt of the Yangtze River Delta, and the interaction between the central region and the central region is also strengthened. Secondly, through the establishment of linear equation group model and multi-classification Logit model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the flow direction of outflow population in the central region from the macro level and the micro level, and finds out the distance. Education investment and economic factors have the most obvious influence on the outflow of population in the central region, but medical treatment, unemployment rate, urbanization rate and transportation convenience are not obvious. Finally, through the establishment of panel data model, from the two aspects of economic growth and regional economic disparity, the paper studies the impact of population outflow in central China. The results show that there are differences in the impact of population outflow in central provinces. But as a whole, the inter-provincial outflow of the central population is not conducive to the economic growth of the central region, nor is it conducive to narrowing the economic gap between the central region and the central inter-provincial outflow population. The central region has a large population base and lagged economic development. Population outflow is the result of rational choice of individual out of profit maximization. It is necessary to continue to carry out the policy of promoting the free flow of labor force. At the same time, along with the outflow of the central population to the central region may cause employment substitution and other issues need to be paid attention to. The government should give full play to the role of public service providers, increase investment in education, health care and infrastructure construction in the central region, and take active measures to cope with local conditions. Promote the central region to develop its own comparative advantage of products and services. Through the research of this paper, we hope to understand the interactive relationship between the outflow of population and the economic development of the central region, so as to better promote the implementation of the strategy of "the rise of the central region".
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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