人口因素与东亚贸易顺差——基于人口年龄结构、预期寿命和性别比率等人口因素的实证研究

发布时间：2019-03-26 21:11

【摘要】：东亚贸易顺差问题一直是学者们关注的焦点,众多学者对其产生的原因进行了分析并提出了不同的解释。本文以人口因素为切入点对东亚地区持续的贸易顺差现象进行了分析,认为东亚主要经济体的人口年龄结构、预期寿命和性别比率的变化通过影响居民储蓄率,进而对贸易顺差的形成产生重要的影响。文章利用东亚地区的十个主要经济体1990年代中期以来的数据,分别估计了人口年龄结构、预期寿命和性别比率对贸易差额的影响。结果发现:(1)抚养比率对贸易差额存在显著的反向影响;(2)预期寿命的延长将增加贸易差额;(3)在"男多女少"的经济体,性别比率的上升将导致贸易差额的增加。文章进一步使用工具变量等方法证明了结论是基本稳健的。
[Abstract]:The problem of trade surplus in East Asia has always been the focus of scholars. Many scholars have analyzed the causes and put forward different explanations. This paper analyzes the persistent trade surplus in East Asia from the point of view of population factors, and points out that the changes in population age structure, life expectancy and gender ratio in the major economies of East Asia affect the resident savings rate. Furthermore, it has an important influence on the formation of trade surplus. Based on the data from ten major economies in East Asia since the mid-1990s, this paper estimates the effects of population age structure, life expectancy and gender ratio on trade balance. The results show that: (1) the dependency ratio has a significant negative effect on the trade balance; (2) the prolongation of life expectancy will increase the trade balance; (3) in economies with "more men than less women", an increase in the gender ratio will lead to an increase in the trade balance. This paper further proves that the conclusion is basically robust by means of tool variables and other methods.
【作者单位】：湖南师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“促进消费持续增长的长期政策和长效机制研究”(批准号:12&ZD050) 2012年度教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(批准号:NCET-12-0718) 湖南省社科基金项目(批准号:11YBA210)的资助
【分类号】：C924;F753.1;F224

【参考文献】