基于Leslie模型的湖北省人口老龄化预测及分析

发布时间：2019-04-09 08:52

【摘要】：人口问题一直是世界各国关注的社会问题。每个国家根据不同的国情,实施不同的人口政策。大多数国家随着人口转变的完成,带来一个严重的结果,即人口年龄结构变化带来人口老龄化加剧(指60及65岁以上,本文特指65岁及以上人口)。人口老龄化是指人口年龄结构的老龄化,是社会经济发展的必然结果,是人类社会发展进程中的必然趋势。人口老龄化和老年人口问题引起世界特别是发达国家的关注,并成为世界性的一个热点问题,应当是在20世纪80年代初期。当时,对于发展中国家来说尚不知“人口老龄化”为何物,仅仅过去30年,今天许多发展中国家也面临着人口老龄化和老年人口问题。进入21世纪以来,湖北省人口老龄化进程不断加快,湖北省人口老龄化的迅速发展,不仅会增加社会负担,而且还会增加家庭负担,如果未来湖北省人口老龄化继续加剧,离休和退休人员在总人口中所占的比重将会不断增加,养老保险基金的支出缺口也将变得更大,这势必会给湖北的社会保障机构带来巨大压力,并在较大程度上影响湖北省社会保障水平的提高以及社会保障范围的扩大,加重劳动者的经济负担,最终影响社会的可持续发展。 1、定性分析与定量分析相结合。定性分析是指对研究对象进行“质”的方面的分析,即用定义来表述事物的基本特征或本质特点的；定量分析是对研究对象的数量特征、数量关系与数量变化分析,是用来衡量事物发展程度或多少的。本文在借鉴以往研究成果和湖北省目前状况的基础上,对湖北省人口老龄化预测进行大量的定量分析,问或运用定性分析对湖北省人口老龄化的现状进行分析。 2、理论研究和实际分析相结合。以国内外学者对中国人口老龄化预测理论为指导,结合湖北省的实际情况,对湖北的人口总数、老龄化系数等相关因素进行具体的剖析,从而提出相应的对策和建议。 3、首先对影响人口老龄化发展的指标采用主成分分析进行降维,在等维灰数递补的动态GM(1,1)模型基础上以2005—2010各年的老龄化人口总数为统计数据,较为准确地对短期老龄化人口进行预测。再次利用Leslie矩阵的预测模型对湖北省中长期进行预测,并全面反映人口结构变化趋势。 4、在对湖北人口老龄化预测分析的基础上,为政府面对人口老龄化的不断加剧问题提供较为准确的参数,确保湖北省政府提前布局,完善老龄产业与社会养老保障体系,为更好的发挥老年人力资源在国民经济中的角色作用进而促进经济快速增长提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Population has always been a social issue of concern to all countries in the world. Each country carries out different population policies according to different national conditions. With the completion of population transformation, most countries have brought about a serious result, that is, the change of population age structure has led to the aggravation of population aging (that is, 60 and over years of age, this article refers to the population aged 65 years and above). The aging of the population is the aging of the age structure of the population. It is the inevitable result of the development of the social economy and the inevitable trend of the development of the human society. The aging of population and the problem of old-age population have attracted the attention of the world, especially in developed countries, and become a hot issue in the world. It should be in the early 80's of the 20th century. At that time, developing countries still do not know why "population ageing", just 30 years ago, many developing countries today are also facing population ageing and elderly population problems. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the process of population aging in Hubei Province has been speeding up. The rapid development of population aging in Hubei Province will not only increase the social burden, but also increase the burden of families. If the population aging in Hubei Province continues to intensify in the future, The proportion of retirees and retirees in the total population will continue to increase, and the gap in the expenditure of pension funds will also become larger, which is bound to bring enormous pressure on the social security agencies in Hubei Province. And to a great extent, it affects the improvement of social security level and the expansion of social security scope in Hubei Province, aggravates the economic burden of labourers, and finally affects the sustainable development of society. 1. Combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Qualitative analysis refers to the analysis of the "quality" of the research object, that is to say, the definition is used to express the basic or essential characteristics of the object. Quantitative analysis is a quantitative analysis of the quantitative characteristics, quantitative relations and quantitative changes of the research object, which is used to measure the degree or number of the development of things. Based on the previous research results and the present situation of Hubei Province, this paper makes a lot of quantitative analysis on the prediction of population aging in Hubei Province, and then analyzes the present situation of population aging in Hubei Province by qualitative analysis. 2, the combination of theoretical research and practical analysis. Guided by the prediction theory of population aging in China and combined with the actual situation of Hubei Province, this paper makes a concrete analysis of the related factors such as the total population and the aging coefficient of Hubei Province, and then puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. 3. Firstly, the principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimension of the indexes affecting the development of population aging. Based on the dynamic GM (1,1) model with equal dimension grey numbers, the total number of aging population in 2005 / 2010 is used as the statistical data. Forecast the short-term aging population more accurately. Thirdly, the forecasting model of Leslie matrix is used to predict the long-term and long-term population structure of Hubei Province, and the trend of population structure change is fully reflected. 4. On the basis of prediction and analysis of population aging in Hubei province, this paper provides more accurate parameters for the government to face the increasing problem of population aging, ensures the early layout of Hubei provincial government, and consummates the old-age industry and social old-age security system. In order to give full play to the role of the elderly human resources in the national economy and promote the rapid economic growth put forward policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：O242.1;C924.24

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