人口预测在PADIS-INT软件中的应用——MORTPAK、Spectrum和PADIS-INT比较分析

发布时间：2019-04-09 15:38

【摘要】：队列要素方法目前在人口预测实践中应用极为广泛,而在人口预测软件中对其加以具体运用时,由于涉及算法设定、程序编制上的诸多细节问题,预测结果的精准程度可能会受到影响。文章选定主流的人口预测软件,使用瑞典的实际人口数据,开展对比性人口预测试验,考察不同软件对队列要素方法的实现状况。研究发现,MORTPAK、Spectrum和PADIS-INT人口预测软件由5岁组起始人口插分出的单岁组结果具有一致性、是相近的,根据预测结果推算出的存活比差别甚微,出生人口的预测结果也没有显示很大差异。PADIS-INT已经达到国际主流人口预测软件所应具有的预测水准,而考虑到其功能设置更加丰富、参数导入更加灵活、结果呈现更加细致的优势,它目前更加适用于具有应用性质的详细人口预测。
[Abstract]:At present, the queue factor method is widely used in the practice of population forecasting. When it is applied in the software of population forecasting, because of the algorithm setting, there are many detailed problems in the programming of the program, and the method of queue factor is used in the practice of population forecasting. The accuracy of the prediction may be affected. This paper selects the mainstream population forecasting software, uses the actual population data of Sweden, carries on the comparative population forecast experiment, and investigates the realization of different software to the cohort factor method. It is found that the results of one-year-group interpolated by MORTPAK,Spectrum and PADIS-INT from the initial population of the 5-year-old group are consistent and similar, and the survival ratio calculated from the predicted results is of little difference. PADIS-INT has already reached the forecast level that the international mainstream population forecast software should have, and considering that its function setting is more abundant and the parameter import is more flexible, the result of the forecast of the birth population has not shown much difference, and it has reached the forecast level that the international mainstream population forecasting software should have. The results show more meticulous advantages, and it is more suitable for detailed population forecasting with applied properties.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目“特征、规律与前景—老龄社会的人口学基础研究”(批准号:71490731)的资助
【分类号】：C923

【相似文献】